Tukur Rabiu
27 August 2007
opinion
For centuries, governments have wanted to know how many people were under their rule. Their curiosity was that they wanted to know the number of their taxpayers, potential labourers and soldiers and eligible voters. The most direct way to find out how many people there are is to count them, and when you do this, you are conducting a population census. The United Nations defined a population census more specifically as "the total process of collecting, computing and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified authority" (UN, 1956:3).
Despite the enormous benefits that are derived from population census, census in Nigeria like elsewhere in the world has been an ever-increasing insurmountable national assignment. Indeed, the late General Sani Abacha remarked that "the resultant disillusionment has led cynics to the unfortunate conclusion that it is futile to conduct census in Nigeria in the future". Nigeria has had several population censuses (about 12) since 1866 when the first census was conducted. Political, social, ethnic, religious controversies and regional distrust stood as strong obstacles to the wide acceptability of most of the past censuses.
The 2006 Census was not devoid of such obstacles and controversies. Despite a four-year work plan with detailed logistics, budget, monitoring and evaluation plans, the 2006 Census scheduled to take place in the dry season of 2005 (November) could not go through. This is in addition to vast amount of experiences gathered by the National Population Commission from 1991 Census and the restructuring of the Commission by the 1999 Constitution.
The scheduled 2005 population and housing census was finally conducted in March 2006. Because of the initial logistical problems in several states and local government areas, the census period was extended by additional two days. The post-enumeration check (PES) was conducted after some delays of a couple of weeks. The preliminary result of 2006 was released in January 2007 about ten months after it was conducted. This was rather long; the provisional results of 1991 Census were released within four months of its conduct.
Having learned from the two previous censuses, NPC must begin preparation for the 2016 Census fully aware that the old controversies and complexities will persist, however in different dimensions. Therefore, Nigeria must prepare for the challenge of the next census, bearing in mind the unanticipated problems and bottlenecks that are likely to be encountered. As part of the preparations for the 2016 Census, the National Population Commission should address the following areas in its work plan.
Legal framework
The 1999 Constitution spells out the establishment of National Population Commission, its composition and functions. Population census is one of its constitutional responsibilities but is silent on how frequent NPC should discharge this constitutional assignment. That is to say the constitution does not categorically mandate the NPC to carry out population census every ten years. The 1999 Constitution provides the NPC the power to "undertake periodical enumeration of population through sample surveys, censuses or otherwise".
To fully entrench the ten-year periodicity of census, this section must be amended; if not, we shall be having census at irregular intervals instead of ten years. If this is not spelt out, the government of the day will carry out this assignment when it deems it necessary rather than doing it as a matter of constitutional obligation. Maintaining a ten-year periodicity of census is necessary as it always builds on the successes of the previous census and makes it mandatory on government to find time, resources and fund to discharge this duty. The Republic of Gabon and the US have clearly spelt out constitutional provision to conduct a census every ten years, and these governments do whatever possible to conduct a census in every ten years.
Additionally, the constitution should also spell out the time period after which, at least, provisional results of a census should be released. This will certainly reduce the tendency of any manipulation of the results and also improve its acceptability, as it is widely believed in Nigeria that the longer it takes for the census results to be released the greater the chance of its being tampered with. Hence, constitutional provisional to put a time limit within which census results should be released will enhance its wide acceptability, credibility and integrity.
Manpower
As of now, availability of quality manpower that can be recruited on ad hoc basis is no longer a problem. But the problem is how to recruit them. Recruitment of enumerators, supervisors and trainers is usually done at local level - at LGA census offices across the country. The local politicians usually hijack this function to make sure that only their friends, relatives and political cronies are recruited knowing fully that majority of them are not suitable for the job and do not make themselves available during the training - they lack the commitment towards the job. It is therefore advisable that NPC in preparation of 2016 Census devices a means of recruiting quality field staff such as youth corps members, school teachers, members of NGOs, willing civil servants, members of civil society organisations, etc.
Resource mobilisation
Advocacy for co-operation from Nigerians is very essential not just because it serves as a door to internalisation of the census results and its ownership but also because it reduces and even eliminates misconception and negative beliefs about counting people. Additionally, advocacy for improved utilisation of population census among agencies, ministries, parastatals and academic and research institutions whose jobs permit use of census results gives them the opportunity to support and offer useful pieces of advice in its conduct. Linked to advocacy is resource mobilisation that is very crucial in census project in any country - whether developed or developing.
Perhaps, one can say that apart from the national elections, population census is next in terms of national resources being diverted into its conduct. Because of this, most often at times external assistance - in manpower, money and materials - is required particularly in developing countries. It is the realisation of this role played by resource mobilisation of the conduct of census that UNFPA organised a two-day meeting for census officials, international agencies and development partners to discuss and exchange ideas on how best to mobilise resources for the 2010 round of census in 2004 in New York where such resources are not readily available.
Dissemination of census results
The UNFPA Deputy Executive Director said that: "... to speak quite frankly, counting the population (enumeration) and not analysing and using the data for policy planning at both national and sub-national levels is a waste of resources. Unfortunately, that was the case of many countries during the 1990 and 2000 rounds".
This was exactly the case for previous censuses in Nigeria as confessed by NPC chairman: "Apart from the undue delays in the release of census figures in the past, the results have not received adequate circulation to end-users. The effect is that demographic factors have not been adequately integrated into planning for development". The provisional results of 1991 Census were announced on March 19, 1992, four months after it was carried out.
The final tabulation of the census data was officially accepted by the government in February 1999, and only after this point can the census figure be officially quoted as a government document. That was about eight years after the counting took place. Further, it took the National Population Commission between seven and thirteen years to produce various user-friendly analyses of the various aspects of the census data. The earliest analysis was produced in April 1998, that is, "1991 Population Census of the Federal Republic of Nigeria: Analytic Report at the National level. National Population Commission/United Nations (1998)" while the latest was in May 2004, "Nigeria Population Census 1991 Analysis. Volume 3. The Elderly (May 2004)". Other publications put forward for end-users include policy briefs, wall charts, and statistical abstracts. But again, they were produced when we were about preparing for another round of census.
The same applies to the 2006 Census. It took NPC about 10 months to release provisional results. As far as timely dissemination of census analysis is concerned, NPC should be able to produce more short-form publications, bulletins in addition to policy briefs, wall charts and statistical abstracts. All relevant analyses should also be posted into the NPC website for use by anybody in the world who wishes to find such information. NPC should involve relevant academic and research institutions in this direction.
Research
Research is an ongoing process and it should aim at improving the preparation, conduct and final outcome of population census. More collaboration with relevant academic departments/institutions and agencies (both within and outside Nigeria) should be pursued by the NPC with a view to increasing co-operation and wider acceptability of the census data, defining the determinants of misconceptions of the national project and how to create more demand for the use of the census information for both public and private use.
Dr Dahiru wrote from Department of Community Medicine, ABU, Zaria,
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