Umaru Abubakar
29 August 2007
opinion
Kaduna — I must begin by appreciating the visionary outlook of our indefatigable governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Professor Chukwuma Soludo...who early this year asserted or declared that Nigeria could become one of the twenty largest industrial economies if the current economic reforms are maintained by the year 2020AD!
But naturally, we all know that things are easier said than done.
In this context, I wish to examine the myth and reality of this assertion by going down memory lane to cite two typical examples of these futile dreams or public declarations made in the early seventies by top government functionaries. The reason why I say this public declaration often remains a dream is because they are usually not backed or supported by realistic statistical data as foundation for concretising their assertions or wishful thinking, but are rather made for political expediency.
It is not unreasonable, perhaps, to say that a typical Nigerian more often than not tends to build castles in the sky without erecting a ladder for reaching the sky. It is common knowledge that soon after the civil war in the early 1970s, the government of the day promised Nigerians that there would be houses for all by the year 2000AD. Now, seven years after the deadline, a Nigerian is confronted with a housing deficit estimated between 12 and 16 million housing units (Daily Trust newspaper, Thursday, August 2, 2007, page 42).
What a fallacy! The second example was made in 1973 during the commissioning of Peugeot Automobile of Nigeria (PAN) in Kaduna when the government of the day vowed to start producing made-in-Nigeria car ten years from the date of the commissioning, instead of assembling the completely knocked down (CKD) parts from France. We now know better that up to the present day, this public declaration remains a pipe dream!
I wish to say that enough is enough of these insincere public declarations and rhetoric. One of the traditional Hausa proverbs says that "the Friday that is destined or bound to be prosperous can easily be glimpsed from the Wednesday's outlook". In this regard, one wonders whether really Nigeria can make it by the year 2020AD; not withstanding our great potentials and natural dispositions. Without going far, I wish to refer to the British weekly magazine, The Economist, which is one of the most authoritative and reliable international publications on economic and financial activities worldwide.
Every week, the journal seeks to survey and monitor the economic power and development of about 40-50 countries in the world with regard to mainly Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Industrial Production; Consumer Prices and Unemployment.
In fact, in the whole of Africa, only Egypt and South Africa were included because of their levels of economic development and financial activities. Consequently, this is a challenge for the governor of CBN and the other so-called economic reformers to faithfully ensure that Nigeria is deservedly enlisted not through the back door into this league of about 50 world industrial economies by the end of this year, if really we are to take him seriously. This is because public functionaries have for long been insulting and bastardising our intelligence. If presently we cannot belong to the world's 50 industrial economies, I cannot see how Nigeria can be enlisted among the best 20 economies in thirteen years' time.
However, even though I am a layman economically, common sense dictates that for Nigeria to be able to fulfil this Herculean task, she should be able to edge out two countries every year cumulatively, since the league contains between 40 and 50 countries. Otherwise, the Professor's assertion would be regarded like any other empty talk or vanity which we have been witnessing over the last 40 years. The problem with most of our leaders is that they practise or implement only about 20 percent of what they say in public.
Lest we forget, I must say that no nation can develop industrially, mature and prosper without scientific and engineering infrastructures. It is the foundation upon which all our achievements can be concretised. Also, there must be reliable and adequate power supply, water and steel industries. Other industries like petrochemical, armaments, automobiles and textiles are also crucial but are only tributaries of iron and steel industry like that of Ajaokuta which was foolishly abandoned for the last 15 years.
Permit me to briefly highlight the modus operandi of achieving industrial and economic power. This is nurtured over many years, not overnight. Philosophically, it may be said that in every community or society, there are three most important segments of people which constitute the pillars of the society namely leader, teacher and capitalist. Therefore, for a society to prosper, it must possess these three main attributes of leadership, knowledge and wealth. The question therefore is how do we mobilise these attributes for the betterment of the society? However, two of these attributes namely knowledge and wealth are more or less dependent on leadership, which is all embracing. The leadership is supposed to explore and coordinate all the necessary features and characteristics of the society with a view to propelling it to a prosperous and egalitarian state. But for a society to acquire these features, it must be able to harness its human and material resources effectively and consolidate them into a formidable force. This force should serve as the basis or foundation for enduring growth and development whether politically or economically. It must be noted that the quality of life of the citizenry will depend greatly on the effective exploration and tapping of these resources as well as their fair or even distribution. But this is only possible if the leadership quality is good.
Therefore, it is vital to know that the technology of any society is largely influenced by the political, economic, social, cultural and even religious settings of the environment. So, it is not unreasonable to say that the form or nature of a human society is directly or indirectly a function of the technology that produces it. Furthermore, this technology can only come to fruition if it is backed by the knowledge and wealth of the people within the community or society.
Technology evolution and transfer requires that there exists an engineering infrastructure with which the desired technological or scientific skills can be employed to manufacture an item using a particular process. Technology transfer may be regarded literally as the passing of a product or process from a country or company (x) who has developed it to another country or company (y) who has the necessary skills or know-how to understand or comprehend the technology involved.
In addition to passing engineering information, it is also concerned with convincing industry of the market need. The conviction can be done by defining the resources necessary for production, forecasting likely sales, identifying the time-scale of replacement of existing equipment as well as demonstrating the commercial benefits or advantages to all parties concerned in the collaborative venture.
I wish to conclude by imploring our leaders and technocrats to be more sincere and pragmatic with regard to issues of national importance, bearing in mind the tactical and strategic implication of their statements. May I at this juncture refer my readers to the unhealthy and damaging perception of Nigeria by the world as published in the The Economist, dated August 4th-10th, 2007, page 12 entitled "Mission Impossible, nearly".
As a whole, I must say that I am not against public declarations, but of the sincerity of purpose behind them. It can be recalled with commendations when in the late 1950s, Soviet Union launched the first space craft on earth called Sputnik. As a challenge to the rest of the world, President J. F. Kennedy of the United States of America in early 1960s publicly declared that God willing, the United States would launch its own space craft not only to the earth orbit but to the moon by the end of 20th century. As God would have it, the US based on determination, patriotism and sincerity of purpose was able to launch Apollo 11 Rocket successfully in July 1968, which was at that time 32 years far ahead of the promised schedule.
Engr Abubakar, Turakin Rigachikun, wrote from Rigachikun, Kaduna.
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