Frank Nyakairu
2 September 2007
analysis
Lubiriha, DRC/Kisoro — The word is rife that Rwanda may have already sent her troops back into the DR Congo, reports that she, however, strongly denies. But this does little to dispel the fears that all out war could break out between DR Congo government forces and Tutsi rebels supported by Rwandese forces in the northeastern province of Nord Kivu.
Kinshasa has called off operations against an extremist Hutu militia accused of leading the 1994 Rwandan genocide, sparking protests from Gen. Laurent Nkunda, who leads a Congolese Tutsi armed group in Nord Kivu. The Rwandan government has also protested.
Reports that Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF) troops are inside eastern DR Congo have been lent some element of credibility by comments of relief workers, Congolese refugees and a senior UPDF military official, all of whom requested not to be named because of the sensitivity of the claim.
It is claimed that on August 18 the Rwandese forces allegedly crossed the border.
"RDF brigade 408 under Brigadier Mulokole has joined with Gen. Nkunda rebels and we fear that there is war impending," the UPDF officer told Sunday Monitor.
The brigade is said to have set up base at Kinugi, 30 km off the DR Congo-Rwanda border and 70 km off the Uganda-Congo border in the opposite direction.
But Rwanda flatly denies this, which if true could potentially plunge the Great Lakes region - where a fragile truce in the Congo has been holding -- into another round of proxy fighting.
"That is a malicious rumour going around but we do not have a single force in Congo, though there are problems we have agreed that before the end of October, Congo should resume operations against the Hutu rebels," said Maj. Jill Rutaremara RDF spokesman.
Uganda is suspicious of Gen. Nkunda, Congo's only surviving warlord said to be backed by Rwanda. He has been leading a rebellion in the east against the Kinshasa government, which he accuses of promoting ethnic hatred against his kinsmen.
In a recent report said to have been submitted to the US-facilitated Tripartite Plus Commission that brings together Rwanda, Uganda, DR Congo and Burundi, Kampala is said to have claimed that rebels of the shadowy anti-Kampala People Redemption Army (PRA) are "hidden in Gen. Nkunda's forces," said a diplomat who also declined to be named for fear of jeopardising his position.
Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa told Sunday Monitor on Friday that Uganda would protest the presence of Nkunda at a location on the other side of the border opposite Kisoro in Uganda.
"He is there because of the problems that came up during the reintegration process but we are going to raise [the issue with] Kinshasa authorities to make sure that they deal with it," Kutesa said in the telephone interview.
The tension that has been building up for the last one month finally erupted this week when four government soldiers were killed in eastern Congo by fighters suspected to be loyal to Gen. Nkunda.
On Thursday, August 30, clashes continued and the UN reported heavy fighting in Masisi. Not surprisingly, the number of refugees fleeing into Uganda has since increased, according to Kisoro Resident District Commissioner David Maseruka, "due to the insecurity in Ruchuro area."
Ethnic cleansing feared
Against this fluid background, Ugandan officials are wondering why the majority of the 500 refugees who recently refused to return to the DR Congo are of ethnic Hutu origin.
"We are Congolese Hutu's and we fear that the Tutsis headed by Nkunda and Rwandan forces will attack us," refugees who asked not to be named told Sunday Monitor at Nyakabende refugee settlement, three kilometres outside Kisoro town in southwestern Uganda.
But the humanitarian situation is delicate with UN staff still putting up makeshift shelters for them by week's end. "Look at me. I have been sleeping in the open since I came here. My child and I have been taking porridge for a meal, can't somebody come to our rescue?" one woman said. She is part of the estimated 10,000 Congolese who fled into Uganda on August 22 after Gen. Nkunda reportedly organised an uprising against UN forces.
Information separately obtained by Sunday Monitor also indicates that the refugees' fears are exacerbated by the fact that Kinshasa has pulled its troops out of key forward bases in Buganza, Nyamirima, Kasoso and Nyakoma. These areas were "immediately occupied by Interahamwe rebels of FLDR," a Ugandan intelligence official said.
Uganda's dilemma
Meanwhile, Uganda's hands seem tied. Its most recent request to send in troops under UN's Monuc peacekeeping mission was rejected. "We are aware of the increasing tensions but we have decided to deal with the situation from our side of the border and of course use of diplomatic means," said Kutesa.
Uganda came under international diplomatic pressure and attack when it troops invaded Congo and occupied that country between 1998-2003. The Ugandan army was accused of killing and torturing Congolese and looting the mineral wealth of the DRC. Kampala is still quietly talking to Kinshasa in the hope of extinguishing a $10 billion bill in reparations that were slammed against Uganda by the International Court of Justice in its December 2005 ruling.
Kampala, therefore, is hesitant of going in again. But the first attempts to contain the Kivu troubles were nevertheless made early this week when defence chiefs met in the Rwandan capital Kigali. According to diplomatic sources, Uganda and Rwanda "sharply disagreed on Kampala's proposition that PRA is hidden in Nkunda's forces."
"Our options are limited," said UPDF spokesman Maj. Felix Kulayigye. "What we have decided is to beef up security on the borders as we engage our neighbours in diplomacy." This week military chiefs from the four countries secured a promise from Kinshasa to resume operations against the Hutu extremist rebels before the end of September. But by the weekend, that had only remained a promise.
The second round of a potential diplomatic show down will be next weekend in Arusha, Tanzania where President Yoweri Museveni is expected to meet Congo's Joseph Kabila. "We are to raise all these problems with the Kinshasa authorities and hopefully we will find a solution," Kutesa said.
For Kampala, the brewing war poses a particularly serious headache, especially since it wants its border dispute with Kinshasa quickly resolved so that oil exploration and extraction on Lake Albert can proceed uninterrupted. An attack on a Ugandan oil barge by Congolese soldiers claimed one British oil worker of the Heritage Oil Corp early this month.
Chronology of insecurity
August 10 - Suspected Interahamwe fighters from DR Congo, attack Kanungu District killing three people, Kampala protests to Kinshasa.
August 12 - Kinshasa calls off operations against Interahamwe militias, sparking protests from Gen. Nkunda and Rwanda.
August 13 - Gen. Nkunda's forces ambush a truck transporting arms reportedly from Kinshasa to the Interahamwe.
August 15 - Kinshasa forces withdraw from key positions; Nyakakoma, Kasoso Buganza and Nyamirima which were then occupied by Interahamwe rebels.
August 16 - An Interahamwe commander addresses a rally in Buganza and requests for support.
August 18 - Rwanda government troops allegedly enter Congo and embed with Nkunda's forces at Kinugi.
August 22 - UN forces travelling in a convoy in Ruchuro come under attack from locals reportedly organised by Gen. Nkunda. Three blue helmets wounded.
August 22 - 10,000 Congolese refugees fleeing clashes arrive at Bunagana border in Kisoro District.
August 24 - UN warns renewed war could cause a fresh humanitarian crisis.
August 28 - UPDF forces of 55 Battalion intercept a group of suspected Interahamwe fighters and kill one.
August 29 - Thousands of people flee from clashes in Masisi between government troops and soldiers allied to Gen. Nkunda.
August 30 - Kinshasa gives Gen. Nkunda's forces an ultimatum to join a training academy in Kinshasa or risk being attacked.
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