4 September 2007
Nairobi — Burundi's nascent democracy runs a serious risk of being derailed unless the government negotiates a genuine peace agreement with the Palipehetu-FNL, the last active rebel group in the country.
A new report released by the International Crisis Group is highly critical of the slow pace at which the Burundi crisis is being resolved, and examines the need for a negotiated solution with the rebel group to break a dangerous stalemate that could seriously undermine the consolidation of peace and democracy.
Little progress has been made since the signing of the ceasefire agreement on September 7 last year. But the situation took a turn for the worst at the end of July with the hasty departure from Bujumbura of the rebel delegation negotiating implementation of that agreement which precipitated widespread fears that fighting could resume.
"With tensions already high between the presidency and the opposition parties, government hardliners could use the failure of the negotiations with the rebel group to justify suspending civil liberties and undermining democratic institutions," says David Mugnier, Crisis Group's Central Africa project director.
The report, Burundi: Finalising Peace with the FNL, says international efforts over the past two years to implement a peace agreement between the government and the rebel group have failed, partly due to the difficulties of dealing with an insurgency that retains an ethnic reading of the conflict and considers that time is on its side, due to the expected return of 350,000 refugees from Tanzania, among whom it has important support.
But neither is the government blameless. It shares responsibility for the failure, since it has not created conditions conducive to rapid implementation of the ceasefire.
ICG says the international community must acknowledge that this is a dangerous stalemate and that a new round of talks must be launched, under supervision of a new facilitation team and led by a prominent diplomat, who would work full time on the negotiations and closely with South Africa, Tanzania, the African Union and the UN.
While respecting the constitution, the government should prioritise diplomacy over military action and recognise the need to renew negotiations on a political, not purely technical level.
On its part, the rebel group must express its main demands for integration into the security forces and political institutions in clearer terms. To pre-empt the risk of intransigence on the part of the rebel group once an agreement is signed, regional states and the wider international community should be prepared to impose serious sanctions on Rebel group if they do not honour their commitments and disarm.
"If the government continues to snub the rebels' repeated demands for integration, the rebels will never disarm and will continue to undermine the consolidation of peace in Burundi," says François Grignon, Crisis Group's Africa programme director.
Despite the risk of a new flare up in the fighting, Bujumbura has made relatively rapid, substantial progress in democracy and easing of inter-ethnic tensions, due to its citizens' desire to embrace national unity and compromise, as well as the international community's heavy involvement in the Arusha peace process.
Integration of former government security forces and CNDD-FDD rebels in a new national defence force contributed significantly to consolidating peace, says the report, although the peace process remains fragile.
To move beyond the long civil war, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure respect for the rule of law, a genuine peace agreement is needed with the Rebel group, the last active rebel group, which is not strong enough to fight a new war but remains a power in most western provinces. This requires a new commitment by the government to a negotiated solution, not a military one, and a revived facilitation effort especially by regional states.
If any doubts remained about the need for a genuine peace agreement to put the conflict behind Burundi, the widespread fears of renewed fighting precipitated by the hasty departure of Rebel group from Bujumbura in July dispelled any such notions.
Besides, says the report, the security forces have used the presence of the rebels' armed wing (the FNL) in the countryside to excuse abuses and human rights violations.
Moreover, the FNL problem is becoming a factor in the political crisis, that emerged last March due to tensions between the presidency and parliament.
In the short term, government hardliners could use the absence of a peace agreement to justify suspending civil liberties, thus weakening the foundations of the nascent democracy. If not addressed before the end of this year, the lack of peace could become a destabilising factor in preparations for the 2010 elections and serve as a pretext for limitations on political freedoms during the campaign.
It is also linked to the inflexibility of the CNDD-FDD government, which feels both empowered by its electoral victory and weakened by internal divisions and the crisis with the political opposition, so is tempted to refuse concessions and give priority to a military solution.
The international community should mobilise immediately to prevent further deterioration.
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