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Central Africa: Confronting the LRA Threat in the Great Lakes Region
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The Monitor (Kampala)
16 September 2007
Posted to the web 15 September 2007
Frank Nyakairu
Kampala
TWO events last month have left observers of the Juba peace process asking questions, one; in early August President Yoweri Museveni invited his counterpart from Central Africa Republic (CAR) François Bozize and asked "if necessary" to allow Uganda deploy to fight Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels.
As many were still mulling over the development, President Museveni last weekend secured an agreement with the DR Congo leader Joseph Kabila to deal with the LRA within 90 days.
These two events come at a time when Interior Minister Ruhakana Rugunda is continuing with national consultations on how reconciliation and accountability should be handled in the negotiations with the rebels. What is going on? Is the President showing signs of impatience or is something else driving events?
The LRA are restricted to Congo's Garamba forest. Northern Uganda is relatively peaceful and a considerable percentage of the people now live outside of the protected camps. It is one year since the Juba peace talks began and the critical Agenda Item 3 covering accountability and reconciliation is on the table.
On June 29 , the parties agreed to negotiate a hybrid justice system to replace the possible International Criminal Court trials of the LRA leadership.
They agreed that formal courts in Uganda will exercise jurisdiction over individuals who allegedly "bear particular responsibility" for the most serious crimes.
Though at such a crucial stage, the process is now under threat. The LRA, reacting to President Museveni's moves, has threatened to resume fighting. A top government official who preferred anonymity said the Museveni-Bozize detente is based on the "enemy of my friend is my enemy" adage.
Essentially, the two presidents face rebellion but it seems the bigger enemy is in who backs which armed group. Rebels fighting President Bozize's government operate in the part of the CAR that borders DR Congo -- between 200 and 300km from Ri-kwangba through Yambio road.
It is through this same area, according to credible reports, that the LRA received fresh supplies of arms and ammunition between February and March.
An April report by the International Crisis Group appeared to corroborate this.
"[Information from the] Garamba base suggest morale is high and few fighters see much incentive to return to northern Uganda's squalor. Reportedly, a unit had to trek to the CAR to receive ammunition from Khartoum and its local rebel allies."
These claims were repeated by the ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Acampo who wants the LRA supremos to be prosecuted for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The LRA has mostly moved away from northern Uganda, but it has not been defeated. It has weapons and is still a potent fighting force.
Better army protection of Internally Displaced People's camps and the LRA's inability to operate as effectively on a large scale mean the rebels cannot fully replenish through abductions.
But even with a small force mainly composed of child soldiers, there is a feeling in Uganda's military circles that the ragtag group can cause insecurity.
"Depending on the way the people [rebels] operate they can sneak back and kill a few people and forces other in camps," a security official.
Information obtained by Sunday Monitor indicates that fears of the LRA's change of heart may not be far from the truth. In addition to the reports of re-armament, intelligence reports indicate that the LRA leadership in Garamba has been sending short message service (sms) texts to some its former commanders asking to them rejoin the rebel group.
The rebel commanders who are being targeted include those who defected or surrendered in 2004 and 2005. The sms messages according to our sources read: "We are stronger than ever please join us, we can win."
When contacted for comment, LRA' Otti said: "I am a fighter, we and my forces are not scared to face any army even if it's Museveni's who we have fought for 20 years. We still have the capacity to fight and we shall face anyone who attempts to attack us."
It remains to be seen whether the terms of the September 8 agreement that commits Uganda and the DRC to start a process of "apprehension, disarmament, demobilisation, repatriation, resettlement and reintegration of persons in the negative forces (armed groups), shall, within 90 days from the date of this agreement, be demonstrably undertaken in either country, respectively" will be adhered to.
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Meanwhile, the LRA think the Ngurdoto agreement is one of the "worrisome indicators of imminent threats that shall, if not stopped, ruin the peace process and deny peace to the people of Uganda and the Great Lakes region," according to a press statement issued on Wednesday, September 12 in Nairobi.
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