Nairobi — ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga is today's favourite candidate for State House, standing nine points clear of incumbent President Kibaki, shows a newly published opinion poll.

If elections were called today, nearly half of Kenyans would vote in Mr Odinga, whose popularity stands at 47 per cent to President Kibaki's 38 per cent. ODM Kenya's Kalonzo Musyoka comes a distant third at eight per cent, show results published by pollsters Steadman International.

Mr Odinga still tops by one per cent even when Mr Kibaki's and Mr Kalonzo's ratings are combined.

National poll

The results are likely to be a major boost for the ODM camp since it is the first time Mr Odinga has emerged the favourite in a Steadman national poll.

He has risen steadily from a 17 per cent rating in March and 25 per cent in July.

On the other hand, President Kibaki's rating has fallen steadily since the beginning of the year. From an all-time high of 51 per cent in March to 45 per cent in July and the current 38 per cent.

The poll shows that retired President Moi is regarded highly on the political scene and 44 per cent of those polled think that his support for President Kibaki will help the incumbent win the race.

However 20 per cent think that Mr Moi's involvement will hurt President Kibaki's chances, while 23 per cent say it will not have any effect. Thirteen per cent are not sure whether Mr Moi's involvement will help or hurt President Kibaki's chances for re-election.

The results show ODM to be Kenya's favourite political party with a 47 per cent national rating, while newly created PNU, on which President Kibaki will seek re-election, is the choice of 20 per cent of the electorate. ODM-K is favoured by 15 per cent of voters.

The results were published by Steadman Group's Managing Director George Waititu, who said the current position was a slow build-up and not a dramatic turn.

At the provincial level, Mr Odinga led his two rivals in five out of the eight provinces. In Nyanza, 85 per cent of the voters said they would vote for the ODM Presidential candidate, followed by North Eastern at 70 per cent, Western 65 per cent, Rift Valley (53), Nairobi (51), Coast (48), Eastern (three) and Central (two).

President Kibaki, received the highest ratings in Central Province at 79 per cent, followed by Eastern at 49 per cent, Nairobi (37), Coast (36), Rift Valley (35), North Eastern (27), Western (25) and Nyanza (eight). Mr Musyoka on the other hand received highest approval ratings in Eastern province were 34 per cent of the voters saying they would vote for him, followed by North Eastern and Rift Valley at eight per cent each, Coast province (6), Nairobi and Western (four), Central (one), and no support in Nyanza.

The three presidential candidates will have to work hard to win over the undecided population in all the eight provinces.

Mr Odinga also beats President Kibaki and Mr Musyoka in both rural and urban areas, with 44 per cent supporting his candidacy in towns and 51 per cent in rural areas. President Kibaki trails Mr Odinga in rural areas by four points (40 per cent) in the rural areas and 16 points (35 per cent) in urban areas.

Mr Musyoka comes in third with eight per cent at the rural level and seven per cent in urban areas.

"There has been a rumour that we were holding back a poll because it was not favouring a certain presidential candidate. It is next to impossible that we would carry out a poll and fail to publish because it favours one way or another," said Mr Waititu.

Between now and the elections, said the MD, the company would conduct a poll every two weeks.

The opinion poll was conducted in all of Kenya's 53 districts between September 21 and September 25, just four days after the launch of PNU at KICC.

However, according to the report, one out of 33 Kenyan adults does not know that Kibaki is vying for a presidential seat, while one out of 16 Kenyan adults does not know that Mr Odinga is a presidential candidate.

For Mr Kalonzo, one out of 10 potential voters does not know he is in the race.