Monkagedi Gaotlhobogwe
28 September 2007
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) predicts in its inaugural Botswana Report launched last week in Gaborone that this year alone travel and tourism will grow by more than seven percent.
In its inaugural Botswana Report, known also as Tourism Satellite Account (TSA), WTTC adds that over the next decade, total travel and tourism demand forecast will average five percent growth annually, comfortably exceeding that for sub-Saharan Africa overall and the global average.
It also highlights that the travel and tourism sector here already contributes over 10 percent of total employment and some 16 percent of non-mining gross GDP.
"Despite some areas of concern, the baseline forecasts for Botswana's travel and tourism, developed by WTTC and Oxford Economics are very positive," the report said, adding that, "Over the next 10 years, travel and tourism demand is forecast to average five percent growth per annum, exceeding expected worldwide growth of 4.4 percent per annum, as well as the 4.5 percent annual average for sub-Saharan Africa."
The report also projects that Botswana's travel and tourism economy will achieve annualised real growth of 5.8 percent in terms of GDP, compared with 4.4 percent for sub-Saharan Africa overall, taking the share of travel and tourism GDP in Botswana to 11.6 percent in 2017. "This means that Botswana should outperform almost all its regional competitors," it said.
However, the report says the prognosis for employment is less bullish. It projects that while employment in Botswana's wider travel and tourism economy should rise by 10.6 percent this year, excluding jobs not directly involved in the tourism industry, but which have an impact on, or are impacted by travel and tourism - the longer-term forecast is for only three percent growth per annum.
It further projects that after recording a five fold increase over the past decade, Botswana's Visitor Exports (international tourism receipts, including spending on transport) are forecast to increase by 5.7 percent a year over the next decade. This increase is well above the projections for sub-Saharan Africa and is rising to 14.1 percent of total exports by 2017 as against a mere 7.1 percent projection for the rest of the region.
However, the report warns that to ensure that the forecast growth in visitor exports and GDP is achieved - or even exceeded - as well as stimulating travel and tourism employment growth, the Botswana government will need to adequately service the needs of the industry. "This may well depend on government expenditures on travel and tourism rising more rapidly than the currently projected 4.3 percent per annum. Moreover if forecasts for Travel & Tourism Capital Investment prove accurate - with 8.6 percent growth expected in 2007 and 5.2 percent per annum over the next ten years, it is even more critical for government to allocate sufficient funding for support services to developers, travel companies, visitors and the public at large."
It also warned that capital investment could also rise at a much faster rate than forecast since major airport upgrades planned ahead the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, should boost short-term investment performance. "And the longer-term outlook could significantly improve if the government is committed to a long-term strategy to diversify the national economy," the report advised.
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