Sam Egwu
12 November 2007
Governor Ibrahim Idris, the man whose re-election was officially annulled by the Elections Petition Tribunal sitting in Lokoja (pending the decision of the Appeal tribunal) is not given to the usual loud and boastful utterances associated with politicians.
However in his first known reaction to the news of the tribunal verdict he, declared that he would defeat his challenger, Prince Abubakar Audu in as many elections.
Perhaps the shock arising from the tribunal judgment took a toll on Idris and robbed him of his legendary reticence and humility, the two qualities that observers say have been his strength since he unobtrusively made his debut into the politics of Kogi state in 2002. That year, even as the general elections were still several months away, the political atmosphere was tense with the declaration by several notable politicians for the governorship seat.
The list of aspirants was intimidating, particularly in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which was believed to be the more popular party, by its members, in spite of the incumbent government of the All Nigeria Peoples Party led by Abubakar Audu. Among the stalwarts who showed interest are the outgoing National Chairman of the PDP, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, Senator Alex Kadiri, Chief Gabriel Aduku former President of the Nigerian Institute of Architect; former state Chairman of the National Republican Party (NRC) and now Minister of State for Health, AVM Isaac Alfa and his brother Dr Bob Alfa, former Managing Director of Nigerian National Shipping Line (NNSL).
Others are late Senator A. T. Ahmed, former Managing Director of Nigerian Airports Authority (NAA), Alhaji Isah Edime, veteran broadcast journalist and former Executive Director of the Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria (FRCN), Chief Paul Achimugu, Chairman of Arewa Textiles and the defunct Eagle Bank and 13 other aspirants who were less known politically.
Governor Idris was one of those regarded then as the 'unknown quantities'. When analysts went to work reviewing the chances of aspirants, he was hardly in the calculations. Those who captured attention were the 'heavyweights' with intimidating political profiles and records of public service and those who courted the media.
The contest was lost and won on the nomination front before the front runners could realise that while they engaged in intrigues and manipulations of what they believed were the relevant political variables, the Abuja hotel and furniture magnet went after the delegates individually appealing to their conscience.
That personal rapport turned out to be the decider at the primary elections to the chagrin of the other candidates particularly the Abuja politicians. Efforts by the Abuja group to upturn Idris' victory and crown their adopted candidate, Senator Kadiri, was unsuccessful. To avert a divided house which cost them the seat in 1999, the party stalwarts grudgingly closed ranks and worked for Idris.
The then governor, Abubakar Audu considered the PDP's choice of Idris amusing. In an interview he granted the Newswatch magazine two weeks before the elections, Audu said he felt personally insulted that PDP would pitch such an opponent against him. In that interview he not only boasted that he considered the contest a walk-over, he also bragged that the state would be ruled by him and his cronies for the next three decades.
But two weeks later the erstwhile governor could not help but break down when the results of the elections began to trickle out. Idris not only scored over 80 percent of the votes across the state but polled over 70 percent of the votes of the Igala ethnic group where both he and Audu hail from.
The Igalas control about 60 percent of the state's votes. Audu had expected that opposition to his rule was limited to the two other senatorial districts he was often accused of maginalising.
Therefore, when Idris became verbose after the unfavourable tribunal judgement observers began to wonder if he is truly politically embattled. In fact Audu's camp and a faction of the Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP) in Kogi led by Frank Kato said Idris was already losing grip and boasted that if the appeal court upholds the nullification and orders a fresh poll in the state, Audu will defeat Idris with the same ease he won his case at the tribunal.
Kato at a recent press conference in Lokoja said all the parties in the state were united in their resolve to oust Idris, whom he claimed had failed to meet the aspiration of the people. He was optimistic that if a proposed alliance between Audu and the Action Congress in the state works out then Idris' days in Lugard House will become numbered if fresh elections are declared. Kato is a rabid supporter of Audu in spite of his membership of Alliance for Democracy (AD).
But Kato's position is not shared even within the CNPP. The secretary of the coalition Alhaji Faruk Onuh believes Audu ceased being a political factor in Kogi soon after he lost re-election in 2003.
"ANPP did not win a single seat out of 25 House of Assembly seats contested seven days after his own fatal contest. The man simply abandoned everybody and fled abroad. He only came home because the EFCC went to London to drag him back. Now all of a sudden he wants to be governor again!
"Tell me how that is possible, when he has no political structure left. Granted that INEC
disqualified him on the ground of massive corruption, what happened to the other candidates of his party who were cleared to contest? If Audu is so popular that he can now win election let him tell us why no single candidate from his party won a single seat?" The CNPP Secretary who is also the state chairman of the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) queried.
Indeed, observers believe it is difficult to locate Audu's support base in Kogi politics at present except perhaps the rented crowd of motorcyclists and praise singers who always loudly herald his visit to Lokoja. The so called big time politicians are not known to be associating with him lately. But observers say it is a common feature of Nigerian politics. For fear that they may not be patronised by the government, cash and carry politicians usually keep a distance from perceived enemies of government.
As a fact, many of the ANPP state executive and local government party executives during his tenure had long dissolved into the PDP. But there are a lot of his top supporters who have sworn to be with him through thick and thin. Besides, the recent tribunal verdict invalidating the election of Idris on the singular ground that Audu was excluded from participation appears to have rekindled his popularity. At the moment there are suggestions that since the crux of the judgment appears to be a popular one there may be harvest sympathy. When this combines with the proposed alliance being worked with the Action Congress, it could swing victory to Audu in the event that there is a re-election.
The permutation is that with the strong showing recorded by the AC in the central district in the last election, if Audu is able to share votes of the Igala East with Idris then his chances of victory are bright. This calculation presupposes that the Western senatorial zone which is a PDP fortress commands less than 25 percent of voters in the state. Besides Mr Olusola Akanmode, former Deputy Chief of Staff to Atiku Abubakar is believed to be strong enough to win votes that could undermine Idris' support in the area. At the moment, it is preposterous to speculate on the outcome of the proposed ANPP/AC, but it may or may not fundamentally affect the fortunes of the PDP or Idris in the event of a fresh election.
But the AC's electoral support which is restricted to three local governments of the Central Senatorial District namely Okene,Adavi and Okehi is considered too insignificant by observers to deny Idris of victory. Besides the splitting of votes expected from the Igala East is dismissed as a fantasy by analysts. This is because the Igala electorate who delivered almost 95 percent vote to Idris in the April poles are believed to abhor what they call Audu's arrogance and his desperation to continue to hold the reigns of power.
Audu's last regime when he had problems with civil servants, pensioners and even traditional rulers over the failure of his administration to pay salaries as at when due is not an era that most Kogi people are eager to re-enact. This resolve probably explains why the state work force abandoned a simmering industrial action last month and rushed to pay Idris a solidarity visit two days after the tribunal verdict.
The decision of the Appeal Court is likely to renew the electoral tussle between Governor Idris and his predecessor, Prince Audu if a fresh election is ordered. The factors that will shape that contest are certain to have their roots in not only the political pedigree of the two men but in issues that dominate the scene at the moment.
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