Business Daily (Nairobi)
Wangui Maina
13 November 2007
Last year, flash floods hit the Maasai Mara Game Reserve turning roads into streams and damaging the infrastructure.
Months later, there is growing fear that we have not seen the last of the flash floods and that climate change will affect the way Kenya runs its tourism sector.
"The flash floods were part of a shift in climate change and we need to start looking at how this could continue to impact on us in future," the Ewaso Ngiro South Development Authority (ENSDA) the managing director, Mr Francis Nkako, said.
Although the floods brought forth the issue of poor infrastructure in and around the reserve, little was said about the timing. Rains falling in December in the area are not the norm.
It is now acknowledged that a shift in climatic conditions could spell doom, affecting the growth of grass and vegetation and lead to an animal migration shift.
Mr Nkako said both dry spells and heavy rains could impact negatively on the annual famous wildebeest, zebra and antelope migration from Serengeti to the Maasai Mara, which has raised the profile of tourism in the country.
The game reserve is one of the sector's popular attractions, having received the second highest number of visitors in 2006 - 316,500 - according to the 2007 Economic Survey.
Already, the reserve is faced with the destruction of part of the Mau Forest complex, especially Maasai Mau Forest, which in turn has affected the water table in the area. ENSDA is currently carrying out projects to conserve the forest and prevent future degradation that would lead to negative impact on the local economy.
The destruction of forests in the Mau forest has led to shrinking of lakes in the region. One of the country's highest earning national parks, Lake Nakuru, which earned over Sh400 million last year, has been shrinking over the years mainly due to the destruction of forests in the surrounding area and rising temperatures. The destruction has led to shrinking water levels.
During a presentation at an eco-tourism conference in October, the Chief Executive of Tourism Trust Fund (TTF), Dr Dan Kagagi, noted that the country was witnessing the negative impact of climate change.
The melting of glaciers on Mt Kilimanjaro and Mt Kenya had led to the shrinking of some lakes in the region, mainly due to insufficient inflow of water.
"While climate change will affect every sector of the economy, the tourism industry will be hardest hit, especially by unusual torrential rains and long droughts," he added.
Climate change may increase the frequency of flooding, drought and land degradation and subsequently reduce the viability of recreational activities and wildlife safaris in the country. The wildlife in the reserves and national parks are closely connected to climatic conditions.
"Change in rainfall patterns is affecting land productivity and consequently the composition, structure and performance of vegetation, which in turn affects associated herbivores and their predators," said Fanuel Tollo, the project officer at Climate Network Africa, which researches on climate change in the country.
The rise of temperatures, he said, would lead to reduction in the number of species in parks, change of animal activities - hampering game drives, and also the population of wildlife species.
Heat waves, forest fires, rising seas, droughts, diseases and flash floods could turn profitable tourist destinations into holiday horror stories.
The tourism industry could be faced with huge costs as global warming begins to influence decisions about when and where people will go on holiday.
During a recent conference by the UN World Tourism Organisation, a top official noted that every destination has a climate related component that is threatened by climate change.
The sector directly depends on the climate and most tourists make their decisions depending on this.
"Mountain, island and coastal destinations are considered particularly sensitive to climate-induced environmental changes, as are nature-based tourism segments," Dr Kagagi said.
Kenya relies on most of these segments to sell the destination, mainly due to its good climatic conditions (all year round) to attract tourists. The coast, with its beaches and sunshine, accounts for 60 per cent of the country's tourism while the rest of the sector mainly relies on wildlife. Guaranteed sunshine has always been the attraction of the coast.
"At the coast, effects of climate change are likely to stem from destruction caused by rising sea levels and the destruction of infrastructure due to heavy rains," Mr Tollo stated. All these aspects of our tourism could be impacted by climate change both positively and negatively.
Ecosystems and biodiversity are constantly under threat as they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. In the long run impacting the gains the sector has already achieved.
Currently tourism is the highest foreign exchange earner. Last year the industry earned 56.2 billion, contributing 3.4 per cent to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This year the sector is expected to earn Sh62 billion.
Climate change is a consequence of global warming. A combination of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warmer waters has resulted in a rise of global temperatures.
Since the start of the industrial revolution vast quantities of greenhouse gases have been released into the atmosphere, mainly by the burning of fossil fuels, leading to global warming. In addition, the destruction of forests has also played a major role in altering weather patterns in various regions.
Globally, the sector is one of the most important and rapidly growing service industries. However, its continued success is closely and symbiotically related to the preservation and enhancement of environmental resources.
A report by World Wildlife Fund (WWF-UK) on the impact of climate change on tourism points out that tour operators and countries that rely on tourism for foreign revenue will have to take into account the potential impact of climate change when planning new resorts or upgrading present facilities.
Climate change affects a wide range of environmental resources that are critical attractions for the sector, such as wildlife productivity and biodiversity, temperature conditions, water levels and quality. It also leads to coastal erosion, especially coral bleaching.
In the climate change debate and its effect on tourism, the adage that one man's loss is another man's gain rings true. As some degraded destinations lose their appeal, others are expected to become more attractive.
Tourists at the Maasai Mara Game Reserve to witness the annual migration of the wildebeests.
According to the WWF-UK report, some destinations are likely to become less attractive as temperature and humidity increase above comfort levels, such as in the Eastern Mediterranean. On the other hand, places like the UK could become more attractive as fine summer weather becomes certain.
Finer summers in the UK could impact Kenya's tourism income as it is the country's main source market. However, the threat of colder winters in the UK could mean more visitors to Kenya and higher income, as long as we can guarantee the hot weather.
Another impact of the rising temperature has been the emergence of polar tourism, which has grown dramatically in the past 10 years mainly due to warmer weather.
Arctic tourist numbers have grown from about one million in the early 1990s to more than 1.5 million today. In Antarctica the numbers have shown even better growth of more than 500 per cent.
Dr Kagagi noted that local destinations are already being affected by these changes, adding that western consumers, who make up the bulk of visitors into the country, are sensitive to climate change.
The tourism sector will have to come up with ways of adapting and mitigating the changes if it is to continue to thrive. According to the executive officer of the Ecotourism Society of Kenya (ESOK) Judy Gona, this is one issue that will challenge the fragmentation of the industry as there will be need for a unilateral voice.
Many players in the sector have posed the challenge of getting the sector to come up with sound policies.
"The country will also have to diversify its products to help meet future challenges," she added. Over reliance on two main products could spell doom should either be affected by climate change. Hence diversification will leave the country with other options that will help attract visitors.
In addition, the sector is faced with the challenge of creating a meaningful and effective response to climate change.
"The country should embark on strict monitoring of climate trends and incorporate new information in her tourism promotion," Mr Tollo said. The private sector can also play a role by offsetting carbon emission as part of their business strategy and aim to be carbon neutral as well as improve efficiency.
"As a destination, we need, at the policy level, to consider the wider use of bio-fuels in a bid to cut our emissions," Dr Kagagi added.
In recognition of the impact climate change has on the country the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources recently held the first stakeholders' workshop for the Development of the Environment Policy for Kenya.
The country will have to adapt to save the sector if earnings from the Maasai Mara and Lake Nakuru are to continue coming in. Though the destination as a whole is yet to lose out to others, loses are expected in the future.
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