Gitau Warigi
2 December 2007
analysis
Nairobi — It is not just in Kenya where a vital election is due. A more consequential one as far as our continent is concerned is going to be in South Africa, where the election of the next leader of the African National Congress will take place this month.
President Thabo Mbeki wants to continue for a third term as party leader, even as his tenure as State President expires in 2009. He is being challenged by the man he sacked as Vice-President, Mr Jacob Zuma, who still retains the party deputy leadership.
Preferences by ANC provincial branches emerging last week indicated a solid lead for Mr Zuma, who was ahead in five of nine provinces. Additionally, he got the endorsement of the party's Women and Youth Leagues, each of which count in weight as full-fledged provincial branches.
The reality is that the actual voting by the delegates at the upcoming party congress could turn the tables on the branch-bloc endorsements, but this is unlikely.
All indications are that Mr Zuma is set to be the new party leader and, going by the sheer dominance of the ANC in South African politics, he is the sure bet to succeed Mr Mbeki in 2009.
African countries that are used to incumbents getting their way are puzzled that Mr Mbeki could be in this kind of trouble.
Corruption
Others find it equally odd that someone who had been facing a messy corruption charge that had been given wide international publicity could still be enjoying this kind of popularity in his country. (He was eventually acquitted of the charge). However, a bit of understanding of post-apartheid South African politics could help clear up the confusion.
In the ANC, there is the "exile wing" and the "internal wing." The former was nurtured in exile in apartheid days and is represented by Mr Mbeki, who was a protege of the late ANC leader Oliver Tambo. The most famous face of the "internal wing" was Cyril Ramaphosa, who cut his teeth in the trade unions and was Nelson Mandela's preferred choice as successor until the Mbeki faction vetoed that decision.
Idolised
Much as Mandela is idolised, the sad fact is that he was never in the thick of things as President. It was Mr Mbeki, as his Deputy President, who really ran things. As of now, the forces opposed to the "exile wing" have lined up behind Mr Zuma.
It must be said that Mr Mbeki had gone to considerable lengths to sideline Mr Zuma, even floating the idea of a woman to succeed him. The lady in mind was, of course Ms Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, who Mr Mbeki had promoted to Deputy President to replace Mr Zuma.
There would be a further, startling irony if that succession plan came to pass. Ms Mlambo-Ngcuka is married to the state prosecutor who brought corruption charges against Mr Zuma.
There is more. Mr Zuma's estranged wife, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who is from Swazi royalty, is the Foreign Minister as well as a trusted adviser of Mr Mbeki. With all that galaxy of powerful women and more, it is no wonder that the ANC Women's League endorsement of Mr Zuma stung Mr Mbeki deeply.
The white-dominated business community has been jittery over Mr Zuma's ascendancy, much as they are now belatedly building bridges. They are uncomfortable with the fact that Mr Zuma has total backing from arguably the most powerful lobby group in South Africa - the Confederation of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu). Also in the Zuma camp is the ANC's influential partner, the South African Communist Party.
The unions don't care a hoot about Mr Zuma's alleged corruption baggage which, anyway, they have convinced themselves is part of a plot to destroy their man.
Complexity
The same kind of jitters among the business elite are being replicated here in Kenya with regard to a certain presidential candidate.
My own opinion, however, is that the complexity of the South African economy vis-a-vis ours makes the notion of "radical change" down South implausible.It must be said Mr Zuma is, indeed, a troubling figure in many aspects. And it is not just about the corruption case which, even as a court threw it out, could possibly be revived.
If we recall, he was the man who was accused of raping a young woman who was once his dependant. Worse, when the matter went to court, he became the laughing stock when he said taking a cold shower after the act was his way of avoiding contracting HIV, even as it turned out the woman was HIV-positive. (Mr Zuma was eventually acquitted of the rape charge, too).
The thing about this demon we call democracy is that what registers as pure logic is not what the masses follow when they vote.
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