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Uganda: Baryomunsi Got It Wrong
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The Monitor (Kampala)
OPINION
6 December 2007
Posted to the web 6 December 2007
Charles Sendegeya
I have read Dr Chris Baryomunsi's rendition on the 'alarming' rate at which Uganda's population is growing (Daily Monitor, November 29 on page 12). He said it is dangerous to urge Ugandans to beget many children without considering the implications.
He cited countries that have aggressively implemented family-size repression policies (not family-planning!) as part of broader economic reforms. He doesn't present any complete argument but uses statistics (without any premises) to bully minds of unsuspecting readers.
If you take a broader assessment of population growth statistics, you will discover that Dr Baryomunsi's article and many such population explosion alarms are totally misleading. On March 13, 2007 the UN Population Division published the "World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision."
The latest edition of the UN's biennial population projections forecasts a world population of 9.2 billion by 2050, up from the current 6.7 billion. The increase will come from the less developed countries, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. The report contains a series of high, medium and low population projections. The 9.2 billion figure is the medium variant.
In all countries, however, by 2050 the average age will be significantly higher. No less than half of the increase between 2005 and 2050 is expected to come from a rise in the population 60 and over.
By contrast, the number of those under 15 will decline slightly. Aging will be particularly marked in the developed regions, where the population 60 and over is expected to nearly raise from 245m to 406m.
The 2006 Revision also forecasts that fertility will continue to decline in developing countries. The study projects a drop from 2.75 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.05 in 2045-2050. This trend will be even more marked in the group of 50 least developed countries, where the decrease is expected to be from the current level of 4.63 children per woman to 2.50 children per woman.
Only a few years ago, population concerns were centred on what was supposed to be the threat due to a boom in births. The exaggerated fears of a population boom led to many abuses, such as forced sterilisations and abortions.
However, the 2006 Revision says the world population is in the midst of an "unprecedented transformation" due to a change from a situation of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility. By 2045, people in the world aged 60 and over will surpass, for the first time in history, the number of those under 15.
The report notes that in Europe, all but Albania, Ireland and Moldova, already have a median age higher than 34, and 12 countries or areas in the continent have median ages higher than 40. Japan has the oldest population in the world, with a median age of nearly 43 years in 2005.
Dr Baryomunsi, with an aging population, Uganda may have to cut the number of MPs! Family planning does not mean effort primarily aimed at ensuring small families, but that we make arrangements for proper care of the children we have begotten.
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The author lectures Ethics at Makerere University
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