Nairobi — With 17 days to the General Election, surveys by pollsters are showing that the top presidential candidates draw near-fanatical support from their home areas.

President Kibaki, who is seeking to retain his seat on a PNU ticket, enjoys massive support in his Central Province backyard, while ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga is assured of bagging most of the votes that will be cast in Nyanza. However, he is the outgoing MP of the cosmopolitan Lang'ata constituency in Nairobi.

ODM Kenya's Kalonzo Musyoka is expected to carry the vote in lower Eastern Province in the December 27 poll. However, the President has a head start in upper Eastern, where he will embark on a two-day campaign tour Monday.

Presidential elections

President Kibaki, according to the latest Steadman poll, has 91 per cent backing in Central Province, Mr Odinga enjoys 78 per cent vote in Nyanza, while Mr Musyoka has 45 per cent of the vote in Easter Province.

The chief executive of Strategic PR research firm, Mr Caesar Handa, said the distribution of national resources is the main reason people prefer to vote for somebody from their community, especially in presidential elections.

"People believe it is only a candidate from their community who will enable them to tap to national resources," Mr Handa said.

Apart from Mr Musyoka, who recently criss-crossed his Lower Eastern stronghold to solidify his support, Mr Odinga and President Kibaki have not held serious campaign rallies in their strongholds because they are assured of bagging most of the votes in those areas. Mr Odinga and President Kibaki have been campaigning in other areas.

Mr Odinga enjoys solid support in Nyanza and this explains why he has not ventured into the area in search of votes.

The ODM candidate has, however, made forays into the Kisii region of the province, where he is fighting it out with President Kibaki.

The President was in his home district of Nyeri only recently to attend the funeral of Catholic Archbishop Nicodemus Kirima. Last month, he was in his Othaya constituency to present his nomination papers to the Electoral Commission of Kenya. He addressed several rallies and stopped to acknowledge supporters in various towns in Central Province before and after presenting his papers.

Mr Musyoka has embarked on a series of rallies in lower Eastern Province to campaign for ODM-K candidates.

He toured Kambuu, Kibwezi, Kasaiyani, Makindu, Kilala, Mitheuni, Kikima, and Kalawa in Makueni District before addressing a rally at Tawa market Sunday.

On Monday, he is expected to campaign in Ikutha, Mutomo, Kisasi, Mituu, Miambani, Kitui Town, Kiusani, Kamati, Masinga, Matuu and Tala market.

Anglican Archbishop Benjamin Nzimzi said Kenyans should vote for the best presidential candidate irrespective of where he or she comes from.

"We should look at candidate's history, integrity, party ideal and whether the person will take us to the next level," he said. "We should be freed from tribalism and look at the quality each candidate has instead of voting on tribal basis."

National Commission on Human Rights chairman Maina Kiai said: "Kenya's politics is organised around ethnicity and political parties have no ideological organisation."

He said people vote for candidates from their communities or regions due to the lopsided distribution of the national cake, which persuades voters that they will benefit more should one of their own hold the big office.

Opinion polls released last week showed President Kibaki controlling 91 per cent of the votes in Central Province, where Mr Odinga had eight per cent.

Latest poll

However, Mr Odinga had the lead in Nyanza. According to the latest Steadman opinion poll, he had the support of 78 per cent of the voters in Nyanza, while President Kibaki had 19 per cent.

Kenyans have for a long time been voting along ethnic lines. Mr Musyoka, who is third in the opinion polls, scores highly only in Eastern Province, with the votes coming mainly from lower Eastern. However, he had 41 per cent support in the latest poll compared to President Kibaki's 46 for the entire province.

In the 1997 election when Mr Odinga and Mr Kijana Wamalwa vied for the presidency, most of the votes they got were from their back yards in Nyanza and Western respectively.

Former Nyeri Town MP Wanyiri Kihoro said: "People follow what their leaders tell them. In official statements the leaders will appear nationalistic. But during their unofficial talk they are tribal," Mr Kihoro said.

Strategic chief executive Handa said presidential powers needed to be reduced and institutions left to function independently to end ethnic voting patterns.

"Allocation of resources should be on basis of need," Mr Handa said.

Consumer Insight deputy research manager Samuel Muthoka said people wanted to vote as a bloc for candidates from their regions to boost their bargaining power in the next government.

Central Province and Nyanza, he said, have been voting for candidates from their regions in the past 15 years, while Ukambani provided the swing vote.

"But people in Ukambani region also want to be counted. They have been underdogs and feel it is now time for them to present a bride," Mr Muthoka said.

He claimed most of the people in Western Province were trooping to Mr Odinga's campaign, thanks to a prophesy by the Dini ya Msambwa leader Elijah Masinde, who predicted before he died that leadership will only come to the region's people through Lake Victoria (in Nyanza Province).

Law Society of Kenya chairman Okong'o O'Mogeni blamed politicians for the ethnic voting patterns. He said they or their cronies stood to benefit from key appointments should their candidates assume power.

And he believes that as long as Kenyans maintain this mindset, the trend is unlikely to change. "This is indeed not good for the country and something should be done about it fast because if left unchecked, the country will degenerate into a tribal outfit," he said.

Mr O'mogeni proposes that politics should be totally divorced from the management of the country's affairs as contained in the Bomas Draft.

To consolidate their votes in different regions, the presidential candidates have appointed high profile teams, which include former MPs.