Lawson A. Omokhodion
17 December 2007
analysis
Lagos — Early in October, the city of London was literally agog in ecstasy as the British Prime Minister Gordon Brown endorsed the long awaited Crossrail scheme at a cost of £16billion (N4 trillion), a scheme to provide an east-west transport artery for millions of London commuters. Construction would start late next year and will be completed by 2017. The completion date of the London scheme is exactly three years to the date Nigeria is expected to join the list of the 20 biggest economies of the world, according to government officials who will not sit down to think through anything. Nigeria is hungry for development and growth and it has to be done. The choice is whether to run the government of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua through the deception we saw in the so-called "Housing for all by the year 1990" or "Health for all by the year 2000". These were government pronouncements that meant nothing, sought nothing and achieved nothing.
The so-called vision 2020 was dumped on Nigeria by the government of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. The vision was a result of a scenario painted by the New York-based investment banking group called Goldman Sachs wherein Nigeria was expected to be in the big league of world class economies by 2025 if it got its act together. Without thinking of its underlying dynamics ex-President Obasanjo's boys, humgry for buzz words, brought the deadline to 2020 and no mention of how to get there. To be one of the 20 biggest economies by 2020 means that Nigeria must be able to do what some of these 20 fairly big economies can do - Canada, Austria, Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brazil. It is necessary to realistically ask ourselves what it means to be amongst the world's 20 biggest economies. Do we know what we are saying? Is this government sincere or it has just inherited a cliché from an administration that deceived us for 8 years?
Being one of the biggest 20 economies in 2020 carries responsibilities and privileges. A big economy is not a statistical statement. To be one of the biggest 20 economies means we would become a member of the developed world. Otherwise we can become a big economy and still behave, think and sleep in poverty like India. A developed economy has implications for the mind of the people, physical infrastructures, its manufacturing prowess and educational facilities. By 2020, which is just 13 years away it means most Nigerian roads would have to be tarred including roads in the rural areas and any road linking one community with the other. The only exception may be those farm roads that are far away from human settlements. To tar all Nigerian roads, dualise the interstate roads and place directional signs on roads all over the country will cost how much by 2020? What will be the cost of public transportation system that will mass carry millions of commuters on daily basis at a reasonable time from one part of the city to the other in the 12 biggest cities of Nigeria, plus Abuja and a modified version in the other state capitals. This vision has implications for environmental cleanliness and water supply. It means that all over Nigeria there will be pipe-borne water in our cities, towns, villages, communities and over their length and breadth. All the ADB (African Development Bank) sponsored water supply projects in Nigeria have ended up in one scandal or another. If we must do this magic in 13 years what will this water programme cost Nigeria and when shall we start to implement it?
It is not necessary to add the implication for power supply because an emergency in this sector might be declared soon. But what does being one of the biggest 20 economies by 2020 mean for healthcare and medical attention? It means we can manage cancer, liver problems, multiple sclerosis, avoid maternal deaths, control AIDS, handle malaria with ease, position healthcare centres in every nook and cranny of this country, enhance our life expectancy from 48 years as at today to 70 years at a minimum by 2020. It means our government officials will be treated in our hospitals, most of the various complex medical equipment can be manufactured and maintained in Nigeria, medical care for the aged and children will be free and ambulances available to take elderly people to hospitals at the expence of the state. What programme do we need to put in place to achieve this end by 2020? How much will it cost and when do we start? What of our educational system? It means we shall no longer send our children to Europe and America and that University of Lagos will return to what it was in 1973 when I was there. That Universities of Ibadan, Obafemi Awolowo, Ahmadu Bello, Nsukka, and the newer universities will actually become centres of academic excellence. It means our students can be fed properly, provided with books, get bursaries or student loans, be decently clothed, the girls will avoid prostitution and the boys will run away from cultism and generally become real students again. To do this when do we start, how do we start and how much will it cost?
By 2020, it means that Nigeria would have become a manufacturing economy, capable of producing vehicles, build ships, make small aircrafts at least and take textile production, food processing companies and other light manufactures as a done deal. Do we have the technical education to support this plan? Are the polytechnics still relevant, the schools of nursing, schools of forestry, schools of agriculture, the schools of catering, of fisheries, schools for shoe making, leather tanning, training of electricians, mechanics and other artisans etc? How do we acquire, buy or steal the technology to be a manufacturing country as is required of an economy that is one of the biggest 20 in the world by 2020? What level of employment does the country target by 2020? What of poverty measurement?
What of Nigeria's IT proficiency, use and application? Will computers be manufactured (not assembled) in Nigeria by 2020? Will the manufacturing plants be located in the country or will the items be manufactured for our companies in Europe and simply branded as produced for Nigeria? What of banking? Will the streets of our major cities be home of banks or they will start to go to the rural areas? What of the railways linking the various parts of Nigeria, waterways etc, would they have become so developed to be worthy of one of the biggest 20 economies of the world? What of law enforcement? By 2020 shall we continue to have unsolved murders or we would suddenly have developed a battery of forensic scientists viz: forensic dentists, forensic artists, forensic surgeons, forensic photographers etc. Do we have the magic to transform the Niger Delta or we live it in the hands of the cowboys in NDDC? Believe me, as it stands NDDC can never develop the Niger Delta. Vision 2020 must be imaginative and proactive. To start, attempt a probe of NDDC from 2000 to 2006 and tell me what you see!!!
Under ex-President Obasanjo there was no document of policy to capture this so-called 2020 dream. Nothing was on ground to give a direction, financing plan, theoretical formulations, or a consistent approach to the glib talk. Anytime one asked where to find the document encapsulating the soul of this vision the then government would refer to the wishy-washy all-purpose directionless NEEDS 1 and 11 documents prepared by Obasanjo's adopted first son, professor Charles Soludo. But there seems to be a refreshing difference now. My respected friend Tanimu Yakubu, the Chief Economic Adviser to President Yar'Adua had the courage to tell a meeting of the Nigerian Economic Society recently that the government was returning to the era of multi-year national development planning. What a great talk because without such a disciplined all pervasive plan document, the idea of vision 2020 will simply fade away as is usual in Nigeria. The years of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th national development plans in Nigeria were the only true years of development in Nigeria. But with the coming of the World Bank inspired medium term plans, rolling plans and perspective plans, Nigeria went adrift.
The truth is that even the national development planning strategy as a tool for development has its problems. One of which was that it was a top down policy for development and therefore needed to be finetuned to be people centred. That is a fair criticism. However, countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Singapore and a host of others used the concept of national economic development planning to develop their various economies. The Marshall plan used to redevelop Western Europe after the 2nd World War was a multi-year development plan. Vision 2020 will not be realisable merely because we may now have a national development plan. To start, this country must achieve a 15 per cent real economic growth rate in each of the next 20 years to equal the Republic of South Africa. The country has too many internal contradictions to resolve - rule of law, due process, security, Niger Delta, corruption malaise, infrastructural nightmares, accountability, self respect, belief in the country, trust in the Nigerian, and properly situating our foreign guest workers. Are we ready?
As things stand, we should begin to think of a series of 10 national development plans of 5 years each making a total of 50 years to achieve the lofty objectives of the so-called vision 2020. If the vision 2010 of the late General Sanni Abacha's never saw the light of day it would be asking too much to expect any positive from Obasanjo's 2020. But thank God, President Yar'Adua has come to inject discipline and purpose into the work of governance. So let us start now even if it will take us 50 years to achieve the objectives. It does not matter if our generation will not see the end but our children and children's children will be glad we made a start.
-Omokhodion, was former Group Sales Executive Director, CONOIL Plc.
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