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Mozambique: No Change in HIV Prevalence Rate
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Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique (Maputo)
21 December 2007
Posted to the web 21 December 2007
Maputo
The preliminary figures from the 2007 epidemiological surveillance round indicate no reduction in HIV infection rates in Mozambique, taking the country as a whole.
At the start of this month, it looked as if there had been a slight reduction in the HIV prevalence rate among people aged between 15 and 49 - from 16.2 per cent in 2004 to 16 per cent now. But that now turns out to be just a statistical artifact - the Ministry of Health is now rounding all the HIV figures up or down to the nearest whole number. So the national figure is unchanged on 16 per cent.
Announcing the preliminary figures from the 2007 round in Maputo on Friday, Health Minister Ivo Garrido said the analyses made by the laboratories of his Ministry are "of an irrefutable quality".
"From the samples sent for analysis at the laboratory of the Centre for Disease Control in Atlanta, in the United States, and the samples analysed in our own laboratories, we note that the results coincide in 98.9 per cent of cases", said Garrido. "This shows the efficiency of our national capacity to test for HIV".
He thought that Mozambicans should give more credit to the quality of their own health services - for Mozambique is one of the few countries in the SADC (Southern African Development Community) region where the HIV prevalence rate has not risen over the past three years.
"We are on 16 per cent and that's a tragedy", said Garrido. "But we should note that we have stopped there. We haven't risen any further. But we will continue to say it's a tragedy, even if the rate drops to 10 per cent".
The epidemiological surveillance round took place between March and August in the 36 health units chosen as "sentinel sites". Blood samples were taken from pregnant women aged between 15 and 49 on their first ante-natal consultation. This method is widely used internationally, and a mathematical formula is used to extrapolate from the pregnant women to the adult population at large.
In all, blood samples were taken from 10,757 women.
Although the national prevalence rate is given as 16 per cent, there is a significant margin of error. The Health Ministry's study warns that the rate could be between 14 and 17 per cent (which it describes as the limits of plausibility).
Although the national figure gives the impression of an epidemic that has stabilized, there are sharp differences when the statistics are broken down by region and province.
In the central provinces the epidemic seems to have reached its plateau (when the number of deaths equals or exceeds the number of new infections). The figures for previous years have been reassessed in the light of the new methodology used - Sofala, once the worst hit province, shows a decline in HIV prevalence from 25 per cent in 2001 to 24 per cent in 2004 and 23 per cent in 2007.
Over the same period the rate in Manica province has fallen from 18 per cent to 16 per cent, and in Tete from 16 per cent to 13 per cent. But in the most populous of the central provinces, Zambezia, the prevalence rate is still rising, from 16 per cent in 2001 to 18 per cent in 2004 to 19 per cent in 2007.
Where there is most cause for concern is the southern provinces, where the rate of infection has continued to rise. The worst situation is in Gaza, where the prevalence rate rose from 19 per cent in 2001 to 25 per cent in 2004 and 27 per cent in 2007. Doubtless, this is heavily influenced by migrant labour: men in Gaza have a long tradition of working on the South African gold mines. They are at risk of picking up HIV in South Africa and passing the disease onto their wives when they return home.
Maputo province is not far behind Gaza, with a prevalence rate of 26 per cent (up from 22 per cent in 2004), while in Maputo City the figure is 23 per cent (21 per cent in 2004). In Inhambane the disease has not yet reached frightening levels - but the rate increased from 10 per cent in 2004 to 12 per cent in 2007.
The northern three provinces provide a very different picture. Here the disease has been contained. Thus in Nampula, the HIV prevalence rate fell from nine per cent in 2004 to eight per cent this year. Since Nampula is the most populous of the 11 provinces, this fall is the main reason why the national figure has not exceeded 16 per cent.
In Niassa, the prevalence rate has remained sable at eight per cent, while in Cabo Delgado it has risen from nine per cent to 10 per cent.
Breaking the figures down still further, the highest infection rates were found at sentinel sites in three provincial capitals - Quelimane (Zambezia) with 36 per cent, Xai-Xai (Gaza), 35 per cent, and Beira (Sofala) 30 per cent.
The Friday meeting also looked at the distribution of condoms. There are now 11 organisations distributing condoms, but most concentrate on male condoms, and only three are distributing female condoms
The Ministry's Technical Group on Condoms notes an increased demand for condoms in the cities - but overall use of condoms, the one proven means of halting the spread of HIV, remains low due to "socio-cultural factors and gender inequality".
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The final results from the 2007 epidemiological surveillance round will be available in the first half of 2008.
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| Copyright © 2007 Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections -- or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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