The Observer (Kampala)
Edris Kiggundu
27 December 2007
opinion
If you have been out of Uganda for the whole of this year, you have certainly not missed much on the political scene. The ruling NRM government is still firmly in power with no sign that it is ready to cede any political space to the opposition.
Opposition parties are still disorganised, with internal bickering standing in the way of a concerted effort to fight for their political rights.
As for the eighth Parliament, it is there, yes, debating week in week out, but without holding the government accountable as it should, because most decisions are being taken in the NRM Caucus.
Meanwhile, the country is still grappling with the workings of a multi-party system with both sides of the political divide still unsure of how it works.
In a nutshell, that was Uganda's political picture in 2007, a year that began with so much promise but is ending in disappointment.
DP, traditionally a non-confrontational party, made sure the year starts on an eventful note.
Through a series of demonstrations in January, it resurrected the Andrew Kayiira murder report saga, alleging it had got wind of the real report compiled by the British Metropolitan Police, the Scotland Yard.
For this, it cast itself in the media limelight.
But as the year went on, internal bickering took over and as the year came to a close, DP was yet to put its house in order. Apart from a few demonstrations, FDC did not push government hard enough. The party however came up with a plan, articulating what it hopes to achieve in the coming years.
But unlike DP, their year ended on a good note after their candidate in the Bugweri parliamentary by-elections, Abdu Katuntu, defeated NRM's Kirunda Kivejinja. UPC, which did not court any trouble throughout the year, fell back on the weekly press briefings.
But as in the past, the effectiveness of these briefings remains to be seen. They were mainly used to comment about the main issues of the day and to criticise government over some policy issues.
The meetings hardly touched on the party plans for the future.
Part of the reason the opposition did not achieve much could be because the ruling party did not give them much breathing space.
Despite the law making it legal for political parties to assemble, NRM remained uncomfortable with opposition assembly of any kind.
Thus the NRM retained a fine grip on power and it does not seem to be about to budge.
The successful organisation of CHOGM in November was the icing on the cake for the NRM government. Attempts by few in the opposition to demonstration didn't seem to work.
In Parliament were it has over 200 MPs, the ruling party set the tone, especially when it came to voting on critical issues. Such was their dominance that when the opposition briefly walked out of Parliament in April, business continued almost normally.
Movement hangover
The recent furore over the role of Leader of the Opposition partly illustrates the point that both sides in the multi-party system are yet to agree on how it should operate.
Prof. Latigo Ogenga's attendance of some state functions did not go down well with some of his FDC colleagues despite the fact that protocol sometimes demands he attends.
In the ensuing battle, they accused him of being soft on government because it lavishes him, even when this is constitutional.
Secondly, some MPs could still not to come to terms with the fact that they were answerable to the parties under which they were elected and thus had to toe their line.
As such, MPs Henry Banyenzaki and Dr. Sam Lyomoki of the NRM often ran into trouble for opposing some of their party's positions in Parliament. So did Odonga Otto of the FDC who refused to rescind his decision of resigning from the Parliamentary Appointments Committee even after his party had ordered him to.
One could say that the political players are yet to overcome the hang-over of the Movement system where individual merit was the norm.
2008: Uncertainty, fear Political commentators anticipate that 2008 is going to be a year of uncertainty regarding the country's political future.
With CHOGM out of the way, some people predict that Museveni could tighten his grip on power and become more intolerant politically.
Wafula Oguttu, FDC spokesperson, predicts that the battle between NRM and the opposition for supporters is likely to shift to the rural areas.
"He [Museveni] is beginning to see that the opposition has gained ground in some rural areas where his support has always been," Oguttu says. So he expects another tough year for the opposition although he says they are ready for any challenge.
Yet as chairman of CHOGM till 2009, some people expect the President to try and restrain himself from obvious dictatorial tendencies.
Museveni's credentials could receive a boost if his government and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) sign a Comprehensive Peace Agreement next year.
It would give his NRM ground to re-sell the ruling party in northern Uganda where it is unpopular because of the war.
Hectic schedule
2008 is also going to be one of activity for the parties. DP has tentatively set March as the month in which it will hold its delegates conference. Uganda's oldest party will be expected to elect a new leader to replace the 73-year-old John Ssebaana Kizito who will not be eligible to contest the 2011 elections as he is barred by the constitutional 75-year age limit.
The jockeying has already started, with Gulu LC-V chairman, Norbert Mao and lawyer Joseph Balikuddembe said to be the leading candidates.
UPC too could begin the search for the party's flag bearer early as Miria Obote, 72, will not be eligible to stand in 2011.
The party constitution provides that a party president shall serve for seven years, meaning that Miria Obote's term expires in December 2012. However, it does not state whether the president of the party would automatically be its presidential candidate.
Jimmy Akena, Miria Obote's son and MP Lira Municipality, is one of the possible candidates should the position fall vacant. FDC will also have some house-cleaning to do. The party plans to organise grassroots youth elections across the country.
Probably the most anticipated announcement of 2008 will be a cabinet reshuffle. President Museveni has traditionally reshuffled his cabinet two years into his term and a year before a general election.
He did it in 2003 and 2005, so a cabinet reshuffle looks likely in 2008. Former UPC stalwart Aggrey Awori is one of the politicians expected to come in.
Awori is tipped to become Prime Minister with the possibility of Apolo Nsibambi retiring.
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