Freedom Newspaper (Raleigh, North Carolina)
Bunama Jammeh
27 December 2007
opinion
In Part I, I challenge Mr. Gaye's facts and figures as largely erroneous and mostly without a measurable base in that country. Part II will cover those sections just mentioned above with similar analysis as to the figures and realities of that country. Next in sequence section is the fiscal outturn.
Part I - Covering Introduction and Real Sector of the Domestic Economy
Good and well executed plans and budgets are the base of success for organizations in this world of cut throat competition. This is true for countries likewise individuals like me and you. One reason quality of life of Gambians are not improved from independence to date is poor fiscal policies, bad monetary policies and above all poor plan and budgets. What our governments have been doing was to put together "a wish list" that is presented to the people through our representatives at the National Assembly in a two-hour jamboree. Neither the Minister and/or Secretary of State for Finance nor the deputies know what is put to them to make it into law. Hence, we continued to drop into deeper poverty while government continued to claim success in improving the economy.
What are fundamentals of a plan (call it strategic plan)? In another words what are a planner's toolkit?
The very first element a planner needs is the planning floor. This is basic of any planning. The planner has to have a base from where to lunch a take-off.
A planner's second toolkit element is the planning ceiling. This is where to get to at some point in time. A good planner will have clarity over goals and objectives. The goal(s) may be medium to long term and broad where as the objective(s) should be what strategic planners called - SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic and Time bound).
The third toolkit element is planner's answers to the how question. A planner must identify activities that upon implementation will move him/her from the floor to the ceiling and/or at the least towards the ceiling. The resources required to mobilize such activities should be determined. The main resources are human, financial and capital. Are they available, in what quality/quantity, and how it would be acquired and at what cost. This is a very important toolkit and it is largely responsible of failures of many plans.
The fourth toolkit is auditing. Good plans establish indicators of progress that can be tested by either the planner or some outsider. This process usually follows logic of inputs â,' outputs â,' outcomes â,' impact. The assessment examines both the effectiveness and efficiency.
Finally, plans need a provision for corrective action. This is born out of the fact that there are countless number of events that may happen during the course of planned period to necessitate alteration of some sort. A plan that cannot be adjusted to volatilities cannot stand to the test of time.
These toolkit elements has somewhat set a good stage for us to take stock of the Annual Plans and Budgets of the governments of The Gambia. This is what is known by Gambians as budget speech that takes place at the National Assembly every December and at one time in June/July when our fiscal year was July - June. The essence of this two-hour rattling speech and applauses is for our deputies to enact the executive's proposal of what they intend to do in the next 12 months into law. The Constitutional provisions that vested powers in them to put such plan into law or otherwise gave them equal powers to examine the implementation of such plans and take corrective actions when and where necessary. However this can only be perform if they know the existence of such powers and at the same time possess the knowledge and skills required to conduct such task. The actual development of that plan and budget should have been a collaborative venture between these two arms of government to culminate into that two hour formalization into law. The really work should have been done before this day. Since independence our deputies are deficient in all areas of their job including the verification of executive's plans.. Sadly, these deficiencies are on the increase after almost 50 years (half a century) of self rule.
Reading through this 29 page (my copy) document, the first question that comes to mind - is it a plan? In order to answer this question one should know the components of a plan. For simplicity a plan show goals/ objective(s), activities that if successfully implemented will lead to the desired outcome, the resources needed to mobilize such activities, a time frame within which such plan will be undertaking and how do we determine the success and/or otherwise of the plan during, at the end and at some future times. Again can you tell from this 29 page document what your government wants to do for instant in agriculture, health and education? What goals/objectives do they have for these sectors? What activities do they plan to attain such goals/objectives? How much will it cost to implement those activities? When will they be implemented? How do we know the cost-benefit relation of the implemented activities? What is the next step? Certainly the 29 page document does not provide that information. Instead it is one of those traditions no one has attempted to improve to serve its rightful purpose. In fact in the recent past (at least the last 10 year of PPP and all of A(F)PRC tenure) it is one of those political jamborees to portrait the indispensability of government and that they are ever righteous. My description of that document is "an overly long executive summary of government wish-list", the only purpose of which is to reinforce that indispensability notion among the largely illiterate Gambia.
Another equally weighted reason for the impressive make-up (cooked) statistic is to baffle the IMF/World Bank to acquire development funds in the name of Gambians. IMF/World Banks officials are experts in what they do but history has proven that third world politician have always find ways to get around there conditionalities. One of such in the recent past was President Ferdinand Marcos of Philippines in 1986 forced his Central Bank to print more currency with the same serial numbers. He needed the money to fund upcoming elections while the earlier loan agreements with IMF was to limit money growth, which the later monitor/control through serial number of currency in circulation. Hence, do not be surprise that officials in Banjul are cooking the booking to ensure money for A(F)PRC flamboyances. Apparently it is paying off with the recent debt relief package announced and an approval granted on PRSP II by IMF/World Bank. I will reflect on the exact meaning and benefits to the nation as oppose to the political hype of the government. This cat-and-mouse game between third world politicians and IMF/World Bank is politics within politics. Even though there is no prove that these experts benefit from kick backs from the disbursements to the benefactors it remains a serious possibility. The fact is that it serves as a job security of the expatriates to have tangible activities to ensure continuity of assignments in the third world. The direct benefit of this is of course pays and allowances well above the living standards in those countries hence more retirement savings. The other benefit is the enrichment of resumes/CVs for future bigger international assignments.
The first 8.5 pages of the document is what Mr. Mousa Gibril Bala-Gaye, Secretary of State for Finance and Economic Affairs of The Republic of Gambia called introduction. He claimed a 3 year running (2003 - 2006) 6.4% average annual economic growth in real terms (meaning inflation was factored out). He projected a 7% growth for 2008. Agricultural output is expected to grow substantially because of high growth rate in cereal and groundnut. Some recognition is given to commercial farming and the agribusiness industry. Tourism has grown by 10% and financial sector also witness similar growth. Also in the same sector the Credit Reference Bureau has strengthened financial sector service provision. The secretary has mentioned Gambia's favorable standing in the requirements of a regional/sub regional common currency, the appreciation of the dalasi against major international currencies and the creation of certain structures such as Gambia Revenue Authority, Roads Authority, etc. to strengthen government service delivery capacity. He claimed an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) largely because of improvement in roads and electricity. The government is already working with World Bank on Civil Service Reforms and assumes their close relations with donors will encourage grant funds for identified programs/projects. The Gambia government is not in arrears with her debt servicing and reserves stand at 5.5 months of import cover. The Secretary told the deputies, "the economic fundamentals of The Gambia are strong and outstanding". Accordingly, government policies are reducing poverty and attaining the Millennium Development Goals. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper II (PRSP II) is the main policy document for the period 2007 - 2011 alongside Vision 2020. "The long-term goal of PRSP II is to eradicate poverty by significantly increasing national income through sustained economic growth, and reducing income and non-income inequalities through specific poverty reduction priority interventions, ensuring maximum private sector participation and investing in people".
Be the first to Write a Comment!
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
