After years of falling prices, food suddenly has everyone's attention. Record prices for wheat have led to riots in Morocco, India and Mexico. Governments are halting grain exports to protect domestic food supplies and aid organisations are issuing new appeals for the world's poor.

Developing nations are expecting to be hardest hit by food price inflation, especially net food importers. That includes most of the African continent, and those with high numbers relying on food aid can expect more people to be 'pushed over the edge', says Peter Smerdon, public affairs officer for the World Food Programme in Nairobi.

But the same countries are also the places with most potential to benefit. Two thirds of Africa's population already works in agriculture. As investors from the rest of the world buy into agricultural commodities for the first time, African governments should also be seeing new value in the sector.

"Given Africa's agri-potential, rising food prices suggest an enormous opportunity," says Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered Bank. "Provided the bottlenecks can be overcome, we should see rising rural incomes and much more rapid growth of an African middle class as a result."

The bullish commodity markets have coincided with two years of above-average harvests in East Africa. In Kenya, maize production is expected to reach 3.2 million tonne this year, up from three million tonnes last year, according to FAO forecasts.

It will still import some 300,000 tonnes but a record domestic crop has protected it from soaring corn prices. If it can raise yields even more to export on the world market, it could gain from prices of around $150 per tonne , more than 50 per cent above the average 2006 price.

"At no other time in the recent past have farmers had this kind of opportunity for competing on world markets," says Abdolreza Abbassian, a grains expert with the Food and Agriculture Organisation.

This new opportunity is being driven by fundamental changes in global demand for cereals. Crucially, they are expected to be lasting changes. China and India are consuming millions of tonnes more cereals each year, mostly indirectly through meat consumption.

It takes an estimated seven kilogrammes of corn or soy just to produce one kilogramme of meat. And Chinese consumers now eat 50kg of meat a year, compared with just 20kg in 1985. This is putting huge pressure on global stocks and agricultural yields are unlikely to catch up any time soon, according to experts.

Wheat stocks are now at their lowest level since the start of USDA published global inventory data and corn stocks are at their lowest in 33 years, down to 7.5 weeks of consumption.

Production of biofuels in the US and other high energy users like China are compounding the pressure, both in terms of real demand - the US is already diverting a quarter of its corn crop to biofuel production - and in volatility.

Many governments are still developing policies on biofuels and this will keep prices firm, even if planting increase on the back of rising prices and the supply-demand balance improves, says Luke Chandler, commodities analyst at Rabobank in Australia.

The challenge for agricultural economies, of course, lies in accessing global markets. Most African countries, including Kenya, are net food importers.

And so far, Kenya is not showing any signs of contraction in demand, despite a higher food bill. FAO predicts that imports of rice and maize will rise this year, even as domestic production grows.

That is likely down to strong economic growth as well as the sharp appreciation of the shilling against the dollar, suggests Ms Khan. Even if the growth of Kenya's traditional trading partners, Europe and the US, slows down, improving trade in the region means that it will likely be able to keep paying higher prices for food imports, she says.

But the focus should not only be on shrugging off the impact of higher food prices but also on benefiting from them. Kenya still imports some maize, and is expected to increase imports this year to 300,000 tonnes, up from 230,000 tonnes. With forecast stocks of 200,000 tonnes, it cannot yet afford to export the crop.

"When you look at the balance it is just sufficient for consumption," says Mr Abbassian at FAO. "I don't see a strong reason for Kenya to want to sell maize abroad, especially with elections coming up. They don't want to see prices rise."

But with a further rise in output next year, it could be in a position to export. "Kenya is benefiting from above average yield and increased planting. If they get good weather again next year and can maintain good yields, increasing output by another 200,000 tonnes, they have the potential to export on world markets."

That hypothesis carries a large amount of uncertainty. Weather, especially, is only set to become more unpredictable, with many parts of the world on course to become more arid and experience more droughts.

But exports from African countries will be snapped up by neighbouring markets keen to reduce the soaring freight costs from the biggest corn exporters, US and Brazil.

Malawi, formerly a major recipient of food aid, has proved what can be done when it sold part of a huge maize surplus this year. But much of Africa risks seeing those opportunities pass them by.

"Near term, Africa stands to be impacted negatively by rising food prices," says Ms Khan. "The absence of sufficient incentives, working infrastructure, and a conducive business climate suggests the gap will not be easily filled by rising domestic production."

Higher grains prices are, however, here to stay. A recent report from the International Food Policy Research Institute says that in the best-case scenario, maize prices are going to increase by 26 per cent by 2020. If some countries decide to undertake more drastic expansion of biofuel production, maize could go up by 72 per cent.

High food prices present African farmers with their best opportunity ever to boost incomes, while governments have huge incentives to invest in agricultural infrastructure.

If farmers can increase yields enough to produce a grain surplus, they will tap record prices on world markets. And if they only raise production for domestic consumption, reducing imports, they spare middle class consumers the impact of rising food prices and allow growth to stay on track.

Ms Patton is BD correspondent in China