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Business Daily (Nairobi)

Kenya: Standoff May Revive Terrorist Cells

Steve Mbogo

9 January 2008

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There is an increasing likelihood that terrorist networks could take advantage of the prevailing political standoff to revive their cells in the country or launch attacks on the Kenyan soil, security analysts have said.

The violence here has prevented peacekeepers from Burundi and Uganda from travelling to Somalia, according to United States officials, where a decade and a half of violence and lack of government had made the country a terrorism training ground.

But the police say the national intelligence network is on an overdrive to stem such possibilities.

Analysts' conviction is based on the reality that the national security systems are heavily focused on resolving the armed violence brought about by the disputed presidential election and could, therefore, give lesser attention to other internal security matters - a favourable scenario for local and transnational criminals to run their networks.

Of major concern are the Kenyan borders, especially the one shared with Somalia on the eastern side and with Ethiopia active with the Ogaden rebels fighting for political autonomy there but who have also made previous deadly incursions into Kenya.

Somalia remains without a government disturbances in Mombasa, Kenya's entry point is also a major concern.

In Washington, warning bells have started ringing based on Kenya's vital role in the global anti-terrorism war, and the reality that if the political conflict leads into civil war, the country will instead become a breeding ground for terrorism.

President George W. Bush has sent Jendayi Frazer, the American assistant secretary of state for African Affairs, to help in search for peace in the country.

She, however, said Washington's motivation was not necessarily influenced by Kenya's support for anti-terrorism war but by the violence that has caused deaths of the poor people.

She said the violence has already affected delivery of peace keeping troops to the troubled Somalia.

"We however believe Kenya will stabilise soon and continue its cooperation in the efforts to fight global terrorism," Frazer told journalists at the US Embassy in Nairobi.

The view in America is that Kenya is "indispensable" partner of Washington according to Jonathan Stevenson, professor of strategic studies at the US Naval War College. He said US should, therefore, create strong incentives in the current stalemate to ensure that the situation does not deteriorate further and affect Kenya's ability for anti-terrorism cooperation.

Kenya's coastline, however, remains relatively secure because the Kenya Navy is not involved in controlling the raging violence unlike the Kenya Army and the Air Force. It is also benefiting from armed patrols by the US-led anti terrorism task force based in Djibouti.

Wafula Okumu, the head of African Security Analysis Programme at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, told Business Daily that re-grouping of terrorists and possible attacks on the Kenyan soil are "very likely realities."

"This is one of my greatest fears. All our forces are focused on domestic problems. It is a dangerous time in our country," said Dr Okumu.

He said a political solution should be found quickly so that security forces are relieved to focus on the every day security concerns, including those related to anti-terrorism.

According to Lt Col (Rtd) Jan Kamenju, the head of the Security Research and Information Centre (SRIC) in Nairobi, it is very possible that transnational criminals will take advantage of the Kenyan situation to enhance their activities and probably carry out their plans.

"They could take advantage of the prevailing situation because our forces are overwhelmed by the domestic issues. However, resolving this domestic issue first is the best solution so that adequate attention can then be given to avoiding the risk of transnational terrorism."

But the Police said the national Anti-Terrorism Police Unit has not been overly engaged in the current skirmishes and was alert to the possibility of transnational criminals taking advantage to set up new or revive the dormant operation cells.

"Our intelligence networks are very alert at this time," said police spokesperson Eric Kiraithe.

But he agreed that in broader definition, what is happening in the country is a form of domestic terrorism perpetuated by poorly organised criminal insurgents.

"What we are seeing is poorly organised insurgency by people who do not understand the boundaries of political resistance. These are criminals using very primitive tactics and a political excuse to threaten, attack and chase away other people from their land," said Mr Kiraithe.

He said the police are treating the crimes as murder and will institute criminal proceedings based on that definition.

Col (Rtd) Kamenju, formerly of the Kenya Airforce, said what is happening in the country could be compared to ethnic cleansing and has all the features of domestic terrorism in it.

"What is happening in Kenya is closely related to ethnic cleansing. It is similar to what happened in Yugoslavia where people started butchering each other just because they did not speak the same ethnic language and did not share a religion," he said.

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