Kampala — REPORTS compiled by Intelligence warned the government of the likely violence in Kenya long before the disputed December 27 presidential election but technocrats did not take them seriously, Daily Monitor has learnt.

The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) report cited likely voting patterns along ethnic lines, unwillingness by President Mwai Kibaki's backers to allow a shift in power base, the factionalism among the Kenyan security agencies and heavy campaign financing as a recipe for violence, senior government officials told Daily Monitor.

JIC comprises Internal Security Organisation and External Security Organisation, both institutions mandated to protect Uganda's interests within and abroad. The agencies are directly under Security minister Amama Mbabazi who could not be reached for comment yesterday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity considering the sensitivity of the matter, said the various reports warning the government about a likely outbreak of violence in Kenya were ignored by technocrats, leading to the current crisis of fuel in the country and disruption of the access to the sea route for Uganda's imports and exports.

President Museveni was reportedly among the officials who received the confidential intelligence reports. Some where reportedly filed before the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Kampala last November.

"How can I know?" the Press Secretary to the President, Mr Tamale Mirundi said yesterday when asked about the President's position on the issue.

"I only get to know if the President directs me to make such information public or I have attended a meeting that discussed such a matter or been briefed" he added.

But the State Minister of Foreign Affairs in charge of International Relations, Mr Henry Okello Oryem, who sits on the national security committee, said the committee which Mr Mbabazi chairs got basic intelligence information which indicated that there was likelihood of violence.

"The information we had was the basic sporadic incidences like we would have, say in Uganda, but not information explaining the depth and current magnitude of the violence and rampage in Kenya," Minister Oryem said.

"It is therefore rubbish, misleading that Uganda had intelligence indicating the level of violence. How come we shared this basic information on Kenya with other organs but they could not warn Kenyan authorities?" he asked.

A security source said Uganda shared information on Kenya with British and American intelligence services.

However, our source said basing on the intelligence reports, there were grounds for adequate preparations by the government to cushion Uganda against the negative impacts of a violent situation in Kenya.

Figures from the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) indicate Uganda that loses over Shs2 billion a day in direct revenues as a result of turmoil in Kenya. An additional Shs1 billion is lost in export revenues.

"The information was well before Chogm," the source said. In one of the reports, it was indicated that Mr Kibaki had allied with Kikuyu tribesmates while Raila Odinga of the opposition Orange Democratic Change (ODM) elicited the support of his fellow Luos and the Kalenjins.

Early signs

The other source of violence was that after Mr Kibaki had allied with former President Arap Moi, deadly battle lines had been drawn between the old and the young, who supported Mr Odinga, the Ugandan intelligence brief says.

"We found the young generation (Odinga's group) had put a lot of money than what the old guards had injected in the campaigns, a signal that they (old) guards would not allow to be upset by the (monied) young generation," the source said. While the reports hailed the Kenyan army for being professional, the reports expressed worry about the conduct of Kenyan police, which is suspected to be loyal to Mr Kibaki.

As a solution, the government was advised to stock enough oil in the national reserves, immediately contact Tanzanian authorities to discuss the possibilities of opening the southern route to the port of Dar-es-salaam and tighten security at the border.

Riots and ethnic clashes have killed at least 600 people across Kenya since President Mwai Kibaki's re-election following the December 27 ballot, which his rival Odinga says was rigged.

Meanwhile, Kenya security is imposing a levy for Ugandan bound cargo. For each container of goods, desperate traders are forced to pay to Police Kshs11,000 (about Shs275,000) to escort their goods from Mombasa to Malaba or Busia border posts, Kampala City Traders Association (Kacita) has said. "

The traders, under the new arrangement, are supposed to pay Kshs5,500 (about Shs137,500 to escort the container back to Mombasa," Kacita spokesman Issa Ssekitto said after a meeting with Trade State minister Nelson Gagawala yesterday.

"The country seems to have lost direction, where they don't mind about traders but the resultant effect is going to have a negative impact on the economy," he added.

Mr Ssekitto said the traders have petitioned the government to intervene in stopping the extortion by Kenyan security but that so far, none of the officials is coming on board.