Business Daily (Nairobi)
16 January 2008
editorial
This has been a very difficult period for the international donor community regarding what to do with the Kenyan political situation.
Other than coerce President Kibaki into a political settlement that appeases the opposition, there is little else they can do other than hope that a credible legal challenge to the disputed presidential vote tally emerges.
Our concerns, however, stem from the cocktails of coercive options that the Western diplomats are threatening to force a political settlement.
This is mainly by isolating Kenya internationally and threatening to cut the air supply from President Kibaki's government by stopping aid. What started as a whisper is now almost becoming a chorus with Western governments.
Several solutions ranging from comprehensive (total aid freeze) to targeted (or 'smart') sanctions (like suspending or redirecting aid and travel bans against Kibaki's and Raila's families) have been proposed by several commentators and foreign governments.
On the international scene, the UN is still struggling to come to terms with the effectiveness of its own sanction regimes as a coercive tool in maintaining global peace.
Experiences in Kenya and elsewhere overwhelmingly show that this mainly hurts the poor who underwrite the costs of the sanctions against the corrupt elite that is targeted.
The simple questions we would like to ask the EU and US governments is this; who will really suffer if the money that has been advanced to complete building the Northern Corridor road network that serves Kenya and her neighbouring countries is stopped?
How would the US counter terrorism work against the proliferation of Al Qaeda terrorism cells fare if soured relations with Nairobi leads to massive levels of poverty among the excess, youthful male population at the Coast?
Little is to be achieved by isolating Nairobi and punishing the masses.
Though threats to cut off economic aid to Kenya may just be a diplomatic bluff, we believe that the real solution is to maintain a deeper engagement with all parties as a way of nurturing democracy in Africa.
The traditional routine of threatening to pull-out once conflicts or a political crisis seems intractable just because a country like Kenya is of little strategic use to the West unlike Iran, Pakistan and North Korea should end.
Luckily, the Chinese and Indian strategy of neutrality and long-term engagement is emerging as a strong counter punch against the short-termism West in Africa.
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