Business Daily (Nairobi)
Mwaura Kimani
16 January 2008
The election of Kenneth Marende of Orange Democratic Movement as the Speaker of the Tenth Parliament has handed the opposition its biggest instrument in its fight against the government, analysts said.
Though the Speaker is expected to be neutral in his conduct of House business, analysts said he was unlikely to forget the support through which he acquired the position.
"It makes it difficult for President Kibaki's PNU to impose his agenda in the House as the Chair may slow such agenda down or kill it altogether through his rulings," said Tiberius Barasa, an analyst at the Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR).
"The way out of such a situation for Mr Kibaki is to enter into an alliance with his archrivals in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)," he said.
Tuesday's election of the Speaker also saw Farah Maalim, an ODM member, win the deputy speaker's slot in what marked a significant victory for ODM leader Raila Odinga who insists he was robbed of victory at the December 27 polls.
The contest for speaker was acrimonious, echoing the bitterness that set off widespread violence in the country after Mr Kibaki was declared winner of the presidential election on December 30.
Nearly 500 people have died and at least 300,000 displaced in the ensuring turmoil.
"We don't expect favouritism in his (Mr Marende) rulings going with the fair way he led the proceedings immediately he was sworn in as Speaker, " Mr Barasa told Business Daily.
"However, issues of national interest are likely to be brushed aside as the two sides face off due to the bitterness that has resulted from the contested outcome of the polls," Mr Barasa said.
President Kibaki is already facing a nightmare, thinking of how to fortify his party's strength in the House to push through the agenda of government.
Tuesday's loss of his party's preferred candidate for the Speaker's job, Francis Ole Kaparo, was being seen as a clear sign of things to come for the Government.
The post-election crisis has fuelled a wave of violence, jeopardised Kenya's democratic credentials, angered donors, driven tourists away and hurt the economy.
Yesterday, Mr Odinga's party vowed to press on with street protests that many Kenyans feared would degenerate into bloodshed and property destruction.
"We will use Parliament, street protests and international mediation to press for justice on the political crisis," Mr Odinga told journalists at a press conference.
With the 10th Parliament inaugurated, a speaker and his deputy elected and 207 MPs sworn in , focus has now shifted to mediation talks expected to be led by former UN chief Kofi Annan.
The mediation process suffered a temporary setback on Tuesday when Annan delayed his mission due to an illness. The outcome of the talks could determine how and when the President Kibaki will name the remaining part of his Cabinet.
The President had promised the public a raft of things he would do if they won the elections.
These include free secondary education, enhanced security, civil service pay increase, 24-hour economy, new constitution, fairer distribution of public resources, employment, water and commodity markets.
These are weighty undertakings that will require resources from the Treasury. Yet others will call for sessional papers and Bills whose passage through Parliament would demand numbers.
The Free Secondary Education programme for example needs an extra Sh5 billion to be approved by Parliament before June as the Sh2.9 billion set aside in the previous budget cannot last for the Sh10 billion financing plan.
For example, any constitutional amendment requires the nod of at least 65 per cent of the 210 MPs.
That translates to 145 MPs.But neither Mr Raila or President Kibaki can raise that number, going with the Speaker's election where ODM marshalled 105 votes against PNU's 101.
Both parties could not raise the required two thirds majority.It means that both must seek support from the fringe parties which could see the co-option of the latter into the Cabinet.
They would then be expected to reciprocate that by supporting Government business in Parliament.A similar strategy was used by President Kibaki when he introduced the Government of National Unity (GNU) in 2004 when a coalition partner, the Liberal Democratic Party, walked out claiming it had been short-changed.
Thirteen donors, including the European Union and the United States, threatened in a statement on Tuesday to withdraw direct aid to the government if its commitment to "good governance, democracy, the rule of law and human rights weakens".
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