Mariam Isa
21 January 2008
Johannesburg — SA MUST cut its overall electricity consumption 20% as soon as possible to cope with a power shortage which has led to a spate of blackouts in the past week, a senior Eskom official has said.
Ideally the cutbacks should be shared across all sectors of the economy - residential, business and industrial - as the utility expands its capacity, said Andrew Etzinger, Eskom's GM for demand-side management.
Power rationing or a less disruptive system of load shedding were among the options which Eskom was proposing to the government to boost its reserve margin - or surplus capacity - to 15% from -5% now, he said.
Eskom CE Jacob Maroga has said the utility would try to minimise its power exports to neighbouring countries, which absorb about 5% of its output.
But Etzinger said Eskom could not make unilateral decisions as it was a net electricity importer in the southern African power pool.
"There is no quick fix in sight, serious steps must be taken to address the situation," he said.
"For the next seven years SA is going to be short of power. How we deal with that needs to be answered urgently -- in the next week or two."
Eskom is unable to meet demand generated by faster than expected economic growth, and has asked the government for money to help cover the cost of its five -year expansion plan, which has doubled to R300bn.
Last week, the utility urged the government not to take on new energy-intensive projects until 2013, and warned the crisis may delay construction of Rio Tinto's aluminium smelter, SA's biggest foreign direct investment to date.
"Our reserve margin is at -5%. The government and Eskom have decided that to (get) us out of our current situation we would need a reserve margin on our electricity of 15%," Etzinger said.
"Unless you share the burden across the consumer base, the pressure on one particular sector would be untenable."
Economists said a reduction of that magnitude would make it difficult to meet an official goal of boosting economic growth to 6% by 2010, from about 5% now.
"It's unlikely that the target will be met - 6% is unachievable if electricity demand is cut by 20%," said Brait economist Colen Garrow. "Investment spending and job creation will be affected."
Eskom's blackouts took place during the off-peak season because the utility is carrying out maintenance ahead of winter, when demand is likely to rise to 37500MW from 31500 MW now.
But Etzinger said even when the work was completed, demand must still be 20% below what it would be without intervention.
Eskom was looking at adapting a rationing system which Brazil implemented when it faced an energy crisis, he said.
That would impose quotas on consumers and companies which could then trade their allotments, with penalties imposed if limits were exceeded.
Other options include making solar water heaters mandatory in new buildings, or limiting geysers to one per house.
But it would be up to the government to decide whether to impose rationing, or to legislate energy saving steps, he said.
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South Africa needs to cut it "peak" consumption by 20%. There is plenty of power when you are sleeping. Modifying consumption time-of-use patterns is much quicker than new build power stations. Management of this DSM issue falls squarely with Eskom and government needs to treat the problem like a "war emergency". All solutions should be explored. The investigations and blame game can be for later. Otherwise not all the South African population may be able to see the 2010 World Cup on TV.