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Guinea: Threat of Backslide One Year After Civilian Uprisings
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UN Integrated Regional Information Networks
22 January 2008
Posted to the web 22 January 2008
Dakar
One year after deadly demonstrations in Guinea gave rise to a new 'consensus' government and promises of much-needed reforms, observers say progress has been disturbingly slow while the threat of fresh uprisings hangs in the air.
Living conditions for the majority of Guineans remain dire, improvements in basic services like water and electricity have been minimal and recent moves to reassert control by Lansana Conté, president of 24 years, threaten a relapse into chaos, observers say. Guineans who rose up last year called for an end to Conté's rule.
"The President's old entourage seems to be more active and could encourage him to do something which could provoke the people," a western diplomat told IRIN from the capital, Conakry, on 21 January.
Recent moves by Conté reversing accords signed after last year's protests, including the sacking of a top government official seen as standing for reform, triggered calls for a national strike in early January - later postponed to 31 March pending the outcome of talks.
Frustrations
Given Guineans' frustration over a lack of tangible change, diplomats and aid groups have been bracing for the one-year anniversary of clashes between protesters and security forces in which at least 130 people were killed and thousands injured.
But observances have begun quietly. On 22 January, anniversary of one of the deadliest days of protest, Guineans gathered in churches and mosques to pray for victims and Conakry's streets were quiet, sources there said.
Representatives of government, unions and youth groups are scheduled to meet on 23 January for a forum on how to bring about needed reforms.
"I think the risk of problems linked to the anniversaries has been reduced by the aborted strike," the diplomat said. "But I am by no means confident that we will be problem-free until 31 March."
Reform
While some reforms have taken place since the naming of a consensus prime minister, Lansana Kouyaté, in February 2007 - notably in the education and mining sectors - Kouyaté has been stymied by President Conté, who has gradually reasserted control over a number of functions that had been given to the prime minister.
At a 16-18 January meeting at the Gorée Institute in Dakar, Senegal, representatives of Guinean unions, human rights groups and opposition political parties said the government and the president have violated accords signed after the 2007 unrest, meant to answer some of the people's most urgent grievances.
Civil society has seen political and socio-economic reforms backslide, Ibrahima Fofana, head of the Union of Guinean Workers (USTG), told IRIN at the meeting. "We notice that things we fought against in 2006 and 2007 are coming back little by little. There is an effort to break with the 2007 agreement and this would push Guinea back into chaos."
On the brink
Thierno Sow, head of the Guinean Organisation for Human Rights (OGDH), said Guinea is on the brink. "The situation in Guinea is explosive," he told IRIN at the Gorée meeting. "If we do not find a solution to our problems, it is certain that the people will turn to violence to bring about change, because change absolutely must come."
Sow said he worries that unions, youths and other groups that fought for change are now divided among themselves, further threatening needed reforms. "All Guineans have an obligation to help the nation find a peaceful exit to this crisis so we don't collapse into violence," he said. "It's an obligation."
Conclusions drawn up at the Gorée meeting stated: "Guinea is in chronic crisis - particularly a crisis of leadership... The social and political situation is volatile and the peace fragile."
Grievances
Among people's top grievances have been high food prices and the lack of access to the most basic of services like water and electricity. While some neighbourhoods have seen better water and power supplies, the country - among the poorest in the world despite abundant natural resources - is far from tackling the problem.
"Clearly much remains to be done to provide access to all Guineans," USTG's Fofana said.
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Conakry resident Mamadou Lamarana Bah, 27, who risked his life to protest last January, said those killed were demanding of the Conté regime "better living conditions in this super-rich country that is held hostage by predators."
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