26 January 2008
Maputo — A tropical cyclone is moving slowly down the Mozambique Channel, but on its current path is unlikely to hit the flooded river valleys of central Mozambique.
The storm system formed in the extreme north of the Mozambique Channel on Thursday, and intensified to become a full-scale cyclone, given the name "Fame", on Friday. According to the Mozambican Meteorology Office (IMAM), at 08.00 on Saturday morning the centre of the cyclone was 360 kilometres east of the coast of the northern province of Cabo Delgado, and was generating winds of 90 kilometres an hour.
Currently the cyclone is only a threat to shipping in the Mozambique Channel. Nonetheless, it is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to northern and central Mozambique. Even without a direct hit from the cyclone, this could worsen the situation in flood-stricken areas.
Mozambique's National Emergency Operational Centre (CENOE) has warned provincial governments about the cyclone, and is advising that foodstuffs and clean water should be stockpiled just in case. "Keep calm and in a state of alert", warned a CENOE statement on Saturday.
The latest information from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, which tracks storms in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, shows "Fame" veering towards Madagascar, and hence away from the Mozambican coast.
In central Mozambique, the lower Zambezi is slowly dropping. At Marromeu, the river fell from 7.00 to 6.96 metres from Friday to Saturday morning - but this is still over two metres higher than the flood alert level of 4.75 metres. At Caia, where the alert level is five metres, the river fell from 7.25 metres on Thursday to 7.05 metres on Saturday.
Further upstream, however, at Mutarara, the Zambezi is on the advance again, rising from 5.86 metres on Friday to 6.05 metres on Saturday. This is almost certainly caused by a surge of water from Malawi down the Revobue river, a major tributary that joins the Zambezi just east of Tete city. The Revobue (where the alert level is four metres) rose from 3.78 metres on Thursday to 4.98 metres on Saturday.
Other central Mozambican rivers remain high, but are generally dropping. Thus at Mafambisse, west of Beira, the Pungue river fell from 7.05 metres on Thursday to 6.92 metres on Saturday - which is still almost a metre above the local alert level.
Measured at Goonda, the Buzi river surged to 6.35 metres on Friday, but fell back to 4.44 metres on Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, the authorities are beginning to lose patience with people who insist on returning from resettlement areas to dangerous places on the Zambezi flood plain. According to the director of the government's relief agency, the National Disasters Management Institute (INGC), Paulo Zucula, there are some people who have been evacuated two or three times.
Interviewed by the private television station, STV, on Friday, Zucula warned that rescue operations in the Zambezi valley could not go on indefinitely. A time limit would be set, and people who refuse to be evacuated would not be rescued after that date.
He also said that people in the resettlement areas would have to work for their food, at least by building their own house and latrine. He did not see why people who had obeyed the authorities' warnings and had come to the centres voluntarily when the flood crisis began should be prejudiced, in terms of food supply, by people who had resisted evacuation.
"There's no progress in building latrines, but the number of beneficiaries is growing by the day", remarked Zucula.
Further rain was expected in central Mozambique and neighbouring countries this weekend, even without the impact of cyclone Fame. INAM warns that above normal rainfall is forecast until the end of March.
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