Abuja — In spite of the ongoing efforts by President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua to tackle the Niger Delta Question the crisis appears to be escalating to near war situation. Our Associate Editor (News), IYOBOSA UWUGIAREN, takes a critical look at the Federal Government's approach to tackling the problems.

As Professor Ayo Hammed, Director, Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Ibadan said recently in a seminal paper he presented, "conflict is not deviate, pathological or risk behaviour per se; it is not the opposite of order; there is orderliness in conflict, although conflict can be disorderly. And it can be a very helpful and useful part of society. What is to be afraid of is destructive conflict that has started producing negative result rather than conflict itself". "Conflict becomes destructive if not properly managed".

Experts say a "destructive conflict is usually characterised by violence whether in its physical, psychological or structure sense". This is the situation in Niger Delta today: destructive conflict, where different political and business interests groups are employing violence as a means to pursue their requests or demands.

Yar'Adua And His Understanding of The Crisis or Conflict

It is no longer news that President Yar'Adua had made the issues of Niger-Delta one of his immediate socio-political and economic agenda. Through the Niger-Delta Development Commission {NDCC}, he has a master plan for the development of the region. He believes what the people need is infrastructure development: drinkable water, good network of roads, good health care among others. The president believes the people need jobs in oil companies and needed to be appeased. But some conflict analysts say even though President Yar'Adua had the issues of Niger Delta as part of his seven point agenda, it is very difficult, from the look of things to say whether he genuinely understands the issues he wants to address, especially going by his ongoing moves.

Consequently, the question being asked by some of these analysts and public relations experts are: Does Yar'Adua truly understands the position and history of the crisis? Does he understand the power relations of those involves in the Niger Delta conflict? Does he understand the needs and interests of the parties involved? And they are of the opinion that until those questions are properly addressed, the government might not make any headway in different approaches being designed in tackling the problems.

Yes, the choice of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as Vice President may have been seen as a practical step towards appeasing people of the Niger-Delta, but his seemingly unpopularity among the governors of the region today may have rubbished that strategy.

Perhaps, for political reasons, the governors through their fronts appear to proving to Yar'Adua that his deputy is not as popular as he was made to believe. Though there is no documentary evidence yet, security experts say "there is that possibility".

Again, it could be that the correct information that the aggrieved parties to the conflict or crisis required to take rational decision is being manipulated by those engaged to help resolve the conflict. Or how is the government too sure that the security agencies: the military, the police, the State Security Services {SSS} and others have not become part of the problems, as a result of the alleged huge financial gains they are making from the crisis? Or how is the government sure that it has been able to identify the real parties to the crisis or conflict?

To be sure, Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State and Dr. Abiye Seikibo, former Minister of Transport, who belong to different political camps in the politics of Rivers State had recently exchanged hot words over who is behind the militants in the state.

Recently, Chief Edwin K. Clark, an Ijaw elder also accused a former governor of Rivers State, Dr. Peter Odilli of having a working relationship with some armed militants in the region. What all the revelations are pointing to is that the militants might just be mere messengers. Again, from unfolding events, it might just be impossible for security agents to pretend not to know about the issues. At the tail end of last year, a top security operative, now retired had told some media executives that his agency had fingered some prominent politicians, including a then serving minister of aiding the armed men in the region for political and economic gains. Apart from mere indictment, it is on record that the state has not make any genuine step to question the indicted politicians, who appeared to be flouting their criminal activities in the region.

Yar'Adua' Strategic Approach To Niger Delta Crisis

Like his past successors, facts on ground show that President Yar'Adu has embarked on "top-down approach" to understanding and resolving the problems of Niger-Delta. He appears to be saying, I know the problems of the Niger Delta, even though I am staying in Abuja. To be sure, apart from a few selfish, self-motivated political elite, it is not clear whether the people are being carried along, in the ongoing moves by the president to understanding and resolving the crisis or not. Perhaps so; Asari Dokunbo, a leader of armed gang in the region, who was said to have appeased some time ago by the federal government to drop his guns and follow the path of dialogue, recently doubted the sincerity of Yar'Adua's approach to the crisis and threatened to go back to creek. His reason was that President Yar'Adua is not carrying " the real parties" to the crisis along, a seemingly indication that the president lacks the understanding of the crisis.

Although Vice-President Jonathan recently took over chairmanship of the committee created by Yar'Adua to find solution to the crisis or conflict, but some stakeholders in the region are of the view that the real parties including "unseen hands" to crisis are not being talked to by the government.

Recent report indicates that even Vice President Jonathan is also confused about the whole situation. He was quoted as appealing to Nigerians on New Year day not to relent in their prayers for the happening in the country, especially in the volatile Niger Delta region. It was at the Saint Matthew Military Church, Mambilla Barracks, Asokoro-where he made an unscheduled visit to participate in the New Year church service. His request was predicated on the frightening happenings in the region.

The vice president has every cause to be worried. According to insiders, the major criteria used by President Yar'Adua in picking him as his running-mate was that the choice of a prominent politician from the core Niger-Delta region would be a step forward in dousing the tension in the region, a situation that had been a source of worry to both international community, with huge oil business in the region and the federal government. But in spite of the efforts by federal government, through the vice president to kick-start the process for the resolution of the Niger-Delta's problems, since Yar'Adua took over power, the problems appear to be escalating to war situation. From the public comments of the vice president in the last few days, he appears to be saying: Where lies the solution to the Niger-Delta? Prayer? Force? Or dialogue? Poor Jonathan!

The Public Relations Perspective

Public relations encourages two-way communication, seeking common ground of mutual interest and to create understanding based on truth, knowledge and full information. In fact, the Public Relations Society of America {PRSA} in its official statement on public relations on November 6, 1982 says "Public Relations helps our complex, pluralistic society to reach decision and function more effectively by contributing to mutual understanding among groups and institutions. It serves to bring private and public policies into harmony". As theory of communication suggests, many forms of understanding spring from lack of communication, and one of the objectives in any public relations programme is to improve existing channels of communication and to establish new ways of setting up a two-way flow of information and understanding.

This according to experts is directed at having a proper understanding of the problem and situation in crisis management. Unfortunately, all these understandings appear to be lacking in the Niger Delta crisis.

What Is To Be Done

If President Yar'Adua-led government is genuinely interested in tackling the Niger Delta crisis, there is urgent need for a change of the present seemingly propaganda strategic, in its attempt to solve the problems. It will surely not help. The way forward, from the perspective of public relations strategic and conflict management is to first and foremost, carry out a thorough research in order to have a proper understanding of the crisis in the region. It would also enable the government to know the real parties involved in the crisis.

More so, the government needs to have access to full information and manage it well. In the information management, appropriate authorities should know how to manage the media. It must act with diplomacy but with truth and honesty. Rather than the current seemingly crude method of relating with some of the militant youths, who are party to the crisis, it should find out from them what their interests are. There is need for government to train a crisis management team, test all crisis management plans and equipment, put the crisis plans in writing and circulate to all those involved in managing the crisis. Finally, it must conduct regular research and evaluation including communication audit.