Johannesburg — THE cream of the global telecoms industry gathers in Barcelona next month for the largest and most important event in the mobile industry, the Mobile World Congress.

As they attend keynote speeches, meet on the exhibition floors or relax over tapas and vino, it's a safe bet they will be discussing the rich pickings still to be had in the awakening nations of Africa.

India, China and South America will be lumped in there too, in that generic, amorphous blob known to first-world executives as the emerging market. They have enormous reason to be interested, as their home territories tick along nicely but lack the vigour that comes only from the insatiable demand of customers kept waiting for too long.

"The markets that will attract a lot of attention in 2008 will be in the Middle East, Asia and Africa," say Strand Consult analysts. "These markets will use new technologies in advanced ways, and we will see operators continue to grow their customer numbers, turnover and profit. Maybe the term 'emerging markets' ought to be abolished, and we should recognise that consumers in these regions are actually active and advanced mobile consumers."

Frost & Sullivan SA analysts say Africa's telecoms industry is poised for "remarkable growth". Countries that invest inadequately will stay on the wrong side of the widening digital divide.

The most important activity is the laying of undersea cables, which are crucial in expanding services throughout Africa. Yet despite their importance, the undersea cable projects are being hampered by political bickering and policy clashes about ownership and control, says analyst Lindsey McDonald. "Governments, regulatory authorities, network operators and other key stakeholders have to reach a consensus regarding strategies."

Tough regulatory action from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) will also boost investments in infrastructure. The commission has demanded that operators improve their services radically, and ordered them to cease advertising their services until they meet regulatory standards, McDonald says. That requires network upgrades and expansion and poses a great opportunity for equipment suppliers.

Greater co-operation between rival operators battling to keep their costs down is a trend predicted by Mark Casey of Deloitte. That can be done well and with little compromise in sharing their equipment inside buildings. This year, about 70% of mobile voice and data communications will be made from indoors. That will prompt more operators to try network sharing to pare their overheads and boost interior coverage, says Casey.

Such co-operation has already begun, says Strand Consult, as last year saw a number of operators sign network sharing deals with their rivals to save money and share the risk of investing in new technologies. Others outsourced part of their operations such as network management or customer care to third parties.

"In the struggle to optimise basic operations, a number of sacred cows will be sacrificed," Strand says. "Some of the most conservative operators in the world will start to outsource and share technology with their competitors in 2008."

Strand's routinely impertinent analysts warn that 2008 will see copious hype and hot air from internet giants and hi-tech companies jockeying to go mobile. "Suddenly Apple, Google, MySpace, YouTube etc all have a mobile vision -- based on an idea of how they will revolutionise the mobile universe and bring the internet onto mobile phones," says Strand. "Frankly speaking, they have no idea what life in the mobile world is really like."

The US holds just 15% of the world's mobile users, giving US upstarts a blinkered outlook. "It would have been wise for them to open their eyes a lot earlier to what's been taking place outside their home market, instead of believing that the entire world can be made to behave the way the Americans want," Strand says.

A problem facing newcomers and stalwarts alike is that today's consumers are more intelligent than the industry ever imagined. Having learnt from their mistakes and switched handsets, networks and services many times, these educated customers are increasingly seeking value for money. This will help determine which players succeed or fail in 2008.

The industry has salivated for years at the prospect that one day the number of customers using their handsets for more than just voice and SMS will explode. That cellular Shangri-La is approaching. "Grannies sending text messages will become as commonplace as the business professional checking his e-mail and reading news on the mobile," says Strand.

That will generate extra cash and help networks recoup overexuberant spending on technologies to handle images and data. Another perennial prediction is for consolidation in this overcrowded sector. Coming right up, says Strand. Everyone can see that too many players exist, and that more are coming. Fixed-line operators and TV providers muscling in with complementary products will pile on the pressure, leading to cut-throat prices and withering profit margins.

Right now the term "triple play" refers to the mad scramble to deliver voice, data and video services to the handset. Strand says triple play will have an ominous new meaning soon: take three services, but pay for one.