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Somalia: Ethiopia Bogs Down
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Shabelle Media Network (Mogadishu)
OPINION
31 January 2008
Posted to the web 31 January 2008
Mohamed Amin
Addis Ababa has enormously miscalculated what its forces would face in Somalia particularly in Mogadishu when it launched its invasion to Somalia in the Christmas of 2006 because it overwhelmed by the quick success its forces overpowered fighters of what was on that time Islamic courts union but leaders in Addis Ababa didn't take into account the dangers and ambiguity ahead in a land where law and order was forgotten many years ago and where a country which has the best military and economic capability in the world got confused and relinquished in the earlier 90s.
Meles Zenawi, the premier of Ethiopia justified his offensive to Somalia on the basis of threats by some unsteady members of Somalia's then Islamic courts union but the premier didn't look into the long years of Somalia's statelessness and the perplexing political crises in his neighbouring nation which the international community has already exhausted to understand let alone finding a resolution to it.
Today, over a year since Ethiopian tanks rolled into Mogadishu, no tangible constructive marks were gained under the presence of Ethiopian forces other than a daily bloodbath of civilians which the Ethiopians are part of.
It is so clear that Ethiopia can't reverse this time because those attacking its forces even in their self-restricted barracks are included the same group it already risked its forces into sending to Somalia and that group is; remnants of the Islamic courts.
On the other side, it looks each day passing in the calendar that Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu can't keep continuing to stay in a city where they have an enemy in every alley so that makes the situation languish for the young Ethiopian men in military fatigues who became victims of their government's short-sightedness.
Even though better to do in earlier time, Meles Zenawi's fruitful political and military game would be, to thrash the forces of the Islamic of the courts at gates of Baydhabo town in Christmas of 2006 while the Islamists wildly gearing up to attack that town which was under the control of Abdullahi Yusuf's government and press the transitional government to engage in dialogue with the more reasonable leaders within the courts before Mogadishu would get out of control but that better chance was lost forever and will never come back.
But there is still a way which Ethiopia can get its out of Mogadishu's mess.
It should allay its self with the tribal leaders of Mogadishu more than the government and in that alliance of the clan elders, it should bargain with the leaders if they assure that Mogadishu can't be a launch pad to destabilize the security of the region in whole and that of the world.
In return, Ethiopia must assure the elders that its presence in Mogadishu would cease if they don't let any violent group to enjoy under their clan protection because of, any group in Somalia can't exist without the protection of the tribal basis but this is not what the outsiders fully and clearly understand.
Even the Islamic courts powers were founded on clan basis if the facts were figured out.
Meanwhile, the Hawiye clan which is predominant in the capital learnt enough lessons during the presence of Ethiopian troops in the city and this time I believe they will avoid of the past mistakes which kept the city ungoverned and vulnerable for any evil group to set up it's self.
On the side of the transitional government, President Abdullahi Yusuf should realize that he is a leader of the whole nation which needs peace and should think to use dialogue as means of resolve and the president must grow enough out of the idea on the reliance of foreign forces because that is not working and will never work as long as Somalia's problem rests on internal aspects.
All in all, it is time the Somalis to change and show themselves at least as human beings with some sort of brains and work on the way to get their country in order because the time of debacle has gone longer enough as the country is edging on its second decade of chaos, killing and hunger.
Halkaan ka dhageyso warar ku baxaya luuqadda English ka
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It looks like Meles Zenawi may be learning the lesson which could have been obvious to any reasonable African leader that the invasion of another African state is wrong in the absolute even though he might have done it, as it looks, with the backing and as a surrogate of the US. People should be guided by occurencies in history and should learn to look very hard before leaping and not allow themselves to be pushed into a mess that will end up in total disgrace. Meles Zenawi should be able to recall that it was just about... [Read Full Text]
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