An unusually large number of newly formed fringe political parties are sprouting in Zimbabwe ahead of what has been touted as the most important election in the country since independence in 1980.

For the past eight years, the ruling Zanu PF which has ruled the former British colony since independence and the biggest opposition party the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have been the major players in the political landscape. But with less than 50 days left before the combined presidential, legislative and local government election, political observers are struggling to come up with predictions amid fast moving developments in the political scene.

A fortnight ago, veteran President Robert Mugabe who turns 84 next month had looked poised for a landslide victory after factions of the MDC failed to agree on an electoral pact.

Two MDC factions

The electoral pact would have seen the two MDC factions fielding one candidate in the presidential race and avoid fielding more that one MDC candidates in parliamentary, senatorial and local government elections.

However, all the predictions are now being revised thanks to the unpredictable shifts in Zimbabwe 's political landscape.

Last week, in a development that shook the foundations of the ruling party, a senior member of Zanu PF and former finance minister, Dr Simba Makoni announced that he will be challenging Mr Mugabe for the presidency. His bold stance against Mr Mugabe, who is known for not tolerating opposing views, has raised optimism among millions of Zimbabweans who have lost faith in the bickering MDC that there will be a ' Third Way ' to fight Zanu PF. "I won't be in this campaign alone," Dr Makoni told journalists last week. "There will be many of us, a great many of us."

The interest generated by his grand entry into the presidential race contrasts sharply with the reception given to dozens of opposition parties that are sprouting in the country ahead of the polls.

Although it was not possible to obtain statistics of opposition parties registered so far this year, in January alone, not less than 15 opposition parties announced their entry into Zimbabwean politics through the media. Their names range from the United Democratic People's Constitution (UDPC), Zimbabwe Integrated Party (ZIP), and the Zimbabwe Development Party (ZDP) to the curiously named Voice of the People/Vox Populi (VP). Except for a few, the leaders of most of the parties have no known political background.

This has raised suspicion in some circles who strongly believe the new parties are part of a grand plan to create the impression that anyone is free to start an opposition party in Zimbabwe .

This, said some analysts, would justify a victory by the ruling party Zanu PF even if the main opposition, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) boycotts the election. The MDC has been threatening to boycott the elections arguing that the playing feel is skewed in favour of the ruling party. Mr Kisinoti Mukwashe, the president of the newly formed ZDP dismisses these suggestions arguing that the timing of the formation of his group just 60 days before the elections had more to do with strategy than anything else.

"Our delay is strategic. In fact, it was deliberate, we want to make a surprise attack," said Mr Mukwazhe. "If you look at African opposition parties that ended up in power, you will realise that only those launched just before an election were successful." UDPC leader Mr Tasunungurwa Mhuruyengwe said a "struggle starts anytime, it doesn't need years of preparation". "I know there is limited time," Mr Mhuruyengwe. "But it would be stupid for me not to participate (in the presidential election). The trick is to use a different approach that has not been used by the other parties."

Mr Mhuruyengwe, a former soldier who deserted the army, would not explain his "different approach". The party is still to set up offices, have a full leadership structure and get registered with the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC).

The party's leadership currently comprises Mr Mhuruyengwe alone, who claims he was jailed for two years for deserting the army. Apart from the new parties, there are old ones that are rising up from their slumber as elections draw closer. The Zimbabwe People's Democratic Party (ZPDP) led by Ms Isabel Shanangurai Madangure has bounced back on the internet with a colourful website.

Although it was not immediately possible to contact Mr Madangure or any of the party's leaders, information on the party's website indicates that ZPDP "is focusing its efforts on developing its capacity to provide Zimbabweans with a viable opposition choice in 2008".

The leader of the African National Party (ANP), Mr Egypt Dzinemunenzva, a perennial loser in all presidential and parliamentary elections, says this year his party "means business".

Always contests

Mr Dzinemunenzva has, since 1995, been among presidential candidates, and always contests in by-elections. Since independence, few opposition parties have been able to mount meaningful challenge to Zanu PF except for the former liberation movement, Zapu, which in 1987 was forced to unite with the ruling party after the government spearheaded a bloody military campaign in its strongholds.

In 2000, the MDC also gave the ruling party its stiffest challenge since 1987 less than nine months after it was formed by labour unions, students and academics. There has been unconfirmed talk that the parties that are mushrooming are part of an intelligence ploy to create the impression that there are many opposition parties.

Surprisingly very few Zimbabweans are subjecting Dr Makoni to the same scrutiny, considering his background as a long time ally of Mr Mugabe. Dr Makoni says he remains loyal to the ruling party yet many people see him as the best bet to give Mr Mugabe a real challenge in the polls. Respected Zimbabwe political commentator, Brian Kagoro says ordinary voters have the capacity to separate genuine politicians from "spoilers" and the former Southern African Development Community (SADC) executive secretary should be judged on substance.

"I think people should welcome (Dr) Makoni as competition, whether it's competition as proxy, as a proxy of (Mr) Mugabe, or as independent competition."

Others even feel that its time leaders of the MDC factions Professor Arthur Mutambara and Mr Morgan Tsvangirai made way for Dr Makoni if the opposition is to unseat Mr Mugabe.

At the present moment

"(Prof) Mutambara acknowledges his limits in the presidential race at the present moment and regards himself really as a future leader," said Mr Innocent Chofamba Sithole, a political analyst. "This is why in my opinion, he has been ready at various times in the unity discussions between the two MDC factions to play second fiddle to Mr Tsvangirai.

"There is also widespread recognition that through his foibles and strategic indiscretions over the years, Mr Tsvangirai has lost the aura and novelty with which he entered the political arena."

With prospects of the MDC uniting before the elections fast dying down, it appears for many Zimbabweans it would not matter when Dr Makoni's presidential bid was launched or whether he comes in as a proxy for Mr Mugabe. Mr Tsvangirai on Sunday ruled out any prospects of his faction backing Dr Makoni saying their differences were fundamental.

"I want to confirm that I am the presidential candidate," he told journalists on Sunday. "I am the leader of the MDC and Dr Makoni is nothing more than old wine in a new bottle." And, it is also highly unlikely that the opposition parties that are sprouting everyday will have any say on who wins the crucial vote.

Makoni expelled

Meanwhile, Zanu PF has formally expelled Dr Makoni. The decision was taken at an emergency meeting of the ruling party's Politburo - the Zanu PF's decision top making body outside congress - that was called to discuss the internal strife on Monday evening.

In a statement released today, Zanu PF spokesman, Mr Nathan Shamuyarira said in terms of Section 91.1 of the party's constitution any member who stood as an independent in parliamentary or council elections was automatically expelled.

He also cited Article 7 Section 31 of the party's constitution, which he said empowered the Politburo to take disciplinary action against members. "When he announced that he was standing in the presidential election, Makoni automatically expelled himself from the party," Mr Shamuyarira said. Emerging from the closed door meeting, Mr Mugabe told reporters that he was "raring to go" in the elections. "I am very raring to go and raring to fly," Mr Mugabe said. It is also highly unlikely that the opposition parties that are sprouting everyday will have any say on who wins the crucial vote.

"The majority of those people who say they are forming political parties are nothing but mere attention seekers," said Mr Ian Ncube, a political commentator. "They will not get a single vote if they contest because they do not have any programmes that they can sell to the electorate as most of them are briefcase parties."

In the last presidential election in 2002, Mr Mugabe was challenged by Mr Tsvangirai who was the leader of the then united MDC, Mr Dzinemunenzva of the ANP and Mr Paul Siwela, an independent candidate. In the end it was a two horse race between Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai who lost the election by 400 000 votes under controversial circumstances.

The parliamentary and senatorial elections that followed in 2005 were another battle between Zanu PF and the MDC, with the ruling party narrowly winning the June parliamentary polls.

When the country held the senatorial elections, the MDC had split following disagreements over participation in the polls and the opposition party's smaller faction that threw in its hat was soundly beaten by Zanu PF.