17 February 2008
Maputo — The flood on the Zambezi in central Mozambique is gradually subsiding, as rainfall slackens across the southern African region.
The amount of water entering the Cahora Bassa lake from Zambia and Zimbabwe has fallen to about 6,000 cubic metres a second. Much of this is being stored in the lake, and, according to the latest statistics from the National Water Board (DNA), the management of the Cahora Bassa dam felt able to reduce the dam's discharges from 3,867 cubic metres a second on Thursday, to just over 3,700 cubic metres a second at the weekend.
Along the entire length of the river in Mozambique, the Zambezi is dropping. Its upper reaches are no longer in flood, but the entire lower Zambezi is still above alert level. Thus at Mutarara, the river dropped from 5.41 to 5.32 metres between Friday and Saturday, while at Caia the drop over the same period was from 6.65 to 6.56 metres. But flood alert level at both these places is five metres.
Although all the rivers in central Mozambique are dropping, the crisis cannot be regarded as over. The rainy season does not end until late March, and further flood surges remain possible if the weather deteriorates, or if the Kariba dam, on the Zambia/Zimbabwe border opens more of its floodgates.
A tropical cyclone is also heading towards Mozambique. However, the Mozambican coast is protected by the island of Madagascar. Cyclone Ivan hit the eastern coast of Madagascar on Sunday morning. The cyclone's current course, as projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of the US Navy, will carry it across central Madagascar, reaching the Mozambique Channel by Wednesday.
But cyclones weaken over land, and by Wednesday Ivan may well have dissipated.
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