Published by the government of Zimbabwe
David Samuriwo
19 February 2008
opinion
Harare — UNITED States Ambassador to Zimbabwe James McGee, his predecessor Christopher Dell and their Western allies, especially Britain's Gillian Dare, must be very disappointed.
Why? After failing in their bid to effect illegal regime change in Zimbabwe through violence, focus is now on the ballot box.
This strategy has yet again gone dreadfully off-centre. It is now granted that Zanu-PF will romp to victory.
Firstly, the collapse of the unity talks between the MDC factions worsened the deep-rooted divisions between supporters of both factions instead of narrowing the gap.
The winner-take-all attitude displayed by negotiators from the Tsvangirai faction disillusioned the Arthur Mutambara camp and a fight to the finish is now on.
As if that was not enough, in came Simba Makoni, a former Zanu-PF Politburo member, who claims, without justification, that he was excluded from the Zanu-PF presidential race.
I will not dwell on Makoni's reasons for bringing about his own expulsion from Zanu-PF, but will focus on the impact his bid for the presidency will have on the overall outcome of the elections.
It is now almost three weeks since Makoni announced his intention to run for the presidency and over that period, he has held three Press conferences where he failed to announce his team.
In fact, the nomination courts sat countrywide last Friday and the so-called "Zanu-PF bigwigs" that Makoni claimed were behind him were nowhere in sight.
Zanu-PF and its supporters, on the other hand, successfully held taxing primary elections to select candidates that saw some big names such as Rugare Gumbo and Samuel Mumbengegwi bite the dust in the face of challenges from other aspiring party cadres.
Zanu-PF's campaign machinery in both rural and urban areas is now oiled and geared for the job at hand. This is not the case with both factions of the MDC.
For example, Press reports indicated that the Mutambara faction was frantically hunting for candidates in the rural areas to contest the rural council and Senate seats.
In some areas, the faction reportedly resorted to providing money as an inducement to attract candidates.
Although the Tsvangirai faction was in a much better position in this respect, it also failed to field candidates in some rural and resettlement areas, which is why Zanu-PF has since won two seats unopposed.
According to Tsvangirai, "The challenge we have got is that we are going into this election fully aware of the unfavourable conditions."
Yes, that is very true, but it is Tsvangirai's own obstinacy that brought the unfavourable conditions.
Firstly, how can an opposition party dreaming of forming the next government split its vote in such a manner?
Those in the Tsvangirai faction disillusioned by Morgan's leadership are throwing their weight behind Makoni while others who sincerely believed that unity between the two factions would be achieved will definitely not waste time joining the voting queue.
To make matters worse, supporters of the Mutambara faction consider their erstwhile colleagues in the Tsvangirai faction greedy and power-hungry.
Tsvangirai and his colleagues in the national council argued that the Mutambara faction had no tangible support in Bulawayo and, therefore, all the 16 seats in the City of Kings should be contested by those aligned to the Tsvangirai faction.
Trying to be half clever and in typical bullish fashion, the Tsvangirai camp also demanded 50 percent of all seats in Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South provinces, leading to the collapse of the planned coalition.
While the Tsvangirai faction pontificates that it stands for genuine unity among Zimbabweans opposed to Zanu-PF, the opposite is true.
The faction is made up of lackeys there to be used to safeguard the political careers and welfare of a few individuals.
The intransigence shown by the Tsvangirai group towards unity with the Mutambara faction was a slap in the face to its traditional Western backers and a gigantic boost to Zanu-PF.
As it stands, the "intellectuals" as well as the urban vote will be split by Makoni.
That obviously makes the elections much more interesting in that this has traditionally been perceived as Tsvangirai's stronghold.
Makoni's presence on the ballot paper will threaten Tsvangirai's hold on urban centres.
For the first time since the MDC's launch, albeit as a British proxy, the urban vote will definitely be split equally among all contesting parties and individuals running for the presidency, leaving President Mugabe to rake in the rural vote.
This interesting equation will also apply to all urban House of Assembly, Senate and council seats. The equation has presented Zanu-PF with a distinct advantage against other adversaries.
As far as Bulawayo is concerned, the Tsvangirai faction is riding high on the crest of a fool's wave. It's not a given that all voters in Bulawayo are fools.
They have read between the lines and will not forget how the Tsvangirai faction tried to cajole and intimidate the likes of Welshman Ncube and Gibson Sibanda into agreeing to a one-sided coalition that did not benefit them at all.
Not withstanding the challenging economic situation prevailing in Zimbabwe, the rural vote has always been a one-sided affair and there is every reason to believe it will remain so.
Perhaps a lesson or two is appropriate here for McGee.
Just like in the US where a candidate has to win in certain states to win the presidency, in Zimbabwe there is no way one can become the President without capturing the bulk of the rural vote.
This crucial vote is aware that its survival and prosperity is umbilically tied to Zanu-PF winning the elections. They will definitely make beelines to the polling stations to endorse President Mugabe.
It would be a great disservice to the reader not to comment on Makoni's last Press conference held last week on Wednesday, described by most journalists as a damp squib.
The Press conference that had been expected to reveal the identities of the so-called Zanu-PF gurus behind Makoni turned out to be another banal public relations stunt.
A summary of elements of his manifesto that he presented largely hinged on an abstract National Authority which, should he win the elections - an obviously a far-fetched wish - would superintend over a wide area of responsibilities.
The authority, he said, would consist of academics and experts from other various fields.
I could not help but laugh when journalists commented privately that this was a new form of government with some comparing it to the Libyan system introduced by Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and popularly known as the Jamahiriya system.
We definitely do not need that in Zimbabwe. We are a young, but democratic state. Political developments and assumptions by Makoni have been ill- fated.
Advisor and "kingmaker" Ibbotson Joseph mistakenly believed the two MDC factions would rush to embrace Makoni.
Senior Zanu-PF politicians would also come out with guns blazing to endorse him. That was not to be and Makoni now cuts a lonely figure on the political terrain.
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I promised myself not to ever read The Herald's articles since I always have a feeling that the journalists smoke heavy joints before they get to work.
In order to have a colplete picture of the Zimbabwean situation I some times ready though those propaganda articles which never ceace to surprise me. How naive is it to think that the US Representatives are so worried about Zimbabwe? Who cares what the Americans think or want anyways? surely they are more worried about their elections' campain at the moment!
It should be the responsibility of every Zimbabwean to look at reality for what it is. Enough of the bad propaganda, enough of this joke! Zimbabweans have 66.000% of inflation, this is the reality, and it is only due to bad Government! One third of the Zimbabwean population has had to try to find greener pastures in other countries, they are the greatest number of refugees ever happened in a country where there is no war, and it is only due to bad Governance! The agrarian reform has turned into a complete nightmare, and it is only due to this Government's greed! Murambatzvina has pushed hundreds of thousands of poor Zimbabweans on the road with no alternative but camping on the rubbles of the properties they have had to destroy themselves, this is the shame created by the Zimbabwean Government.
The sanctions, what sanctions are we talking about? There is no sanctions towards Zimbabwe but sanctions towards single persons in Zimbabwe who have contributed to the absolute chaos, so stop blaming the sanctions, considering that Rhodesia bllomed under full economic sanctions Mugabe should be ashamed to use such an untrue subject.
It is time for Zimbabweans who supposedly love their Country to take responsibilities and to wish better days for their own children's future.
Enough is really enough ZIMBABWE and ZIMBABWEANS need a PRESIDENT who cares about their faith and if Simba can be Zimbabwe's hope, well than VIVA Simba!!!!!