22 February 2008
Abuja — Nigeria's restive Niger Delta region is one of the areas of the world prone to another outbreak of the plague, according to top scientists.
A report on Wednesday said scores of infectious diseases have emerged to threaten humans in the past decades as viruses leap the species barrier from wild animals and bacteria mutate into antibiotic-resistant strains.
Areas that present the biggest potential source for a new zoonose are "the whole of the East Asia region, the Indian sub-continent, the Niger delta (and) the Great Lakes region in Africa," the scientists said in a teleconference with reporters.
Presenting the first-ever map of "hotspots" of new infectious diseases, they predicted that the next pandemic is likeliest to come out of poor tropical countries, where burgeoning human populations come into contact with wildlife.
A three-year investigation led by four major institutions tracked 335 incidents since 1940 when a new infectious disease emerged. The category includes HIV/AIDS, which has slain or infected more than 65 million people around the world, and outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H5N1 bird flu, which have cost tens of billions of dollars to contain.
The emergence of new diseases have roughly quadrupled over the past 50 years, says the study, appearing in the British journal Nature.
Sixty percent of them are so-called zoonoses, or diseases that have been transmitted from animals to humans. Most zoonoses come from wild animals, especially mammals, which are the most closely related species to humans. Novel pathogens that adapt to humans can be extremely lethal, as we have no resistance to them.
New zoonoses include AIDS, which is believed to have jumped from chimpanzees to humans, possibly through hunters who killed and butchered apes; SARS, whose natural reservoir is Chinese bats; and the Ebola virus, which holes up in three species of African fruit bat and infects animal primates and humans.
"We are crowding wildlife into ever-smaller areas, and human population is increasing," said co-author Marc Levy of the Center for International Earth Science Information Network, affiliated to Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York.
"Where those two things meet, that is a recipe for something crossing over."
Some wild zoonoses end up infecting humans through an intermediary path, via livestock, such as the Nipah virus, which emerged in Malaysia, or via poultry, such as bird flu.
More than 20 percent of emerging infectious diseases derive from a growing imperviousness to drugs, such as extremely drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB), chloroquine-resistant malaria and verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli, a highly dangerous strain of intestinal bug.
Many of these outbreaks have occurred in Western Europe or North America.
A spike in new infectious diseases occurred in the 1980s, probably because the AIDS pandemic unleashed a range of other new diseases, the authors believe.
El Nino weather patterns in the 1990s may also have helped spread mosquito-borne diseases, according to the study, amplifying concern voiced last year by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that global warming would spread such dangers.
The research is based on an exhaustive trawl through medical literature to identify new infectious diseases, which were then correlated with global patterns in human population density, changes in population, latitude, rainfall and wildlife biodiversity.
"Our hotspots map show that the next new important zoonotic disease is likely to originate in the tropics, a region rich in wildlife species and under increasing pressure from people," said Peter Daszak, executive director of the Consortium for Conservation Medicine at Wildlife Trust, New York. "The problem is, most of our resources are focused on the richer countries in the North that can afford surveillance."
Daszak said the priority should be to set up monitoring networks in developing countries that would identify a threat from the outset and circumscribe it, rather than let it spread like wildfire around the globe, thanks to jet travel and trade. "If we continue to ignore this important preventative measure, then human populations will continue to be at risk from pandemic diseases."
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No doubt that Niger Delta, has continued to be a threat area to many human activity.But one common agreement about the fear of the area is that there has been years of neglect of the environment,its people and development need of the region.Anger and hunger is the base of the voilence.It will only take time mixed with truth and commitment to arrest the restiveness. Again we need to break away from the myth,silence and build education.To this extent I have written a book;fiction to tell a Niger Delta story and militancy.When it is made public,it will be a useful… [Read Full Text]
The uncontrolled oil spill effects in the Niger Delta,posses the threats of the likely break-out of an epidermic.The oil spilled in the environment could disfigure the habitat of wild animals,Birds and fishes.Either they are killed and extinct or they become carriers of the viruses that are eventually contacted by the humans.The book 'Dying Voices of Gongs' presents some of this likely problems as it lays out the different shades of the militancy activities in the area.The environmental and health problems were identified and included in the outlined reasons for the agitation and demand for responsiblity in the manner and operational… [Read Full Text]
People have to thread with great causion and not be allowed to be carried into some fantasy land by fictitious scientific stories by these so-to-say top scientists that predict which areas of the world will have plague etc. People should watch and beware! Is it impossible that some of these outbreaks of various diseases could be actually linked to some people that spread the diseases? The AIDS that has been ravaging Africa is said to have been spread through hunters that killed and butchered apes. But the first case of AIDS was diagnosed in the US… [Read Full Text]