Caiphas Chimhete
24 February 2008
analysis
WITH just four weeks to go to the harmonised elections, Zimbabweans will be bombarded with promises of a better future, with the four presidential aspirants pledging what they will do once in power.
They will sing every line in their manifestos until their voices become hoarse, to convince the electorate to vote for them on 29 March.
Eighty-four-year-old President Robert Mugabe, in the saddle for nearly three decades, will be warding off challenges from Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai, Zanu PF "reformist" Simba Makoni, and little-known Langton Tawungana.
Tsvangirai officially launched his campaign yesterday in Mutare while Mugabe used his 84th birthday celebrations in Beitbridge to start the ball rolling for his bid for another term.
Political analysts say the largely poverty-stricken electorate would not be concerned much about the parties' manifestos -- as the issues are almost similar.
Instead, voters will be preoccupied with the quality and personality of the presidential aspirants.
University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer, John Makumbe, said the presidential candidates' campaigns all centred on obvious issues: "bringing from the near-dead" the economy, reducing staggering poverty levels and a genuinely equitable redistribution of the land -- not the aftermath of the 2000 land grab which created a new Zimbabwean "landed gentry".
"It's going to be about parties and personalities. They will be saying almost the same things. But they will differ on the methodologies of resolving the problems affecting the country," said Makumbe.
Analysts predict Mugabe, facing possibly the stiffest opposition challenge since 1980, would promise to dish out more land, tractors, combine harvesters, seed and fertiliser to lure thousands of rural voters, undoubtedly his strongest supporters.
He will also remind Zimbabweans of the liberation credentials of the ruling party and how he still has a vision to revive the economy.
In his manifesto Mugabe's former Finance Minister, Makoni, promised to revive the country's social, political and economic status.
He promised national re-engagement and dialogue among the people of Zimbabwe to ensure economic, social and political revival. He says he would revive the country's productive capacity through a transparent and equitable land redistribution process.
Makoni has promised to restore the rule of law and normalcy in the financial sector as well as ensuring that Zimbabweans get decent education, health, housing and other social services.
He says his mission is to "restore people's independence, dignity and confidence, increase respect for our institutions and values, project national interests before personal interests, and restore Zimbabwe's standing within the international community."
But Makumbe believes Makoni and Mugabe are no different: "If you look at the synopsis of Makoni's manifesto it's not different from Zanu PF," Makumbe said.
However, University of Zimbabwe political scientist, Eldred Masunungure said Makoni differs from Mugabe in that the ex-finance minister talks about re-engaging the West and the Bretton Woods Institutions -- the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"Makoni's candidature lies in between the MDC and Zanu PF regarding re-engagement with the West, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. You won't have that from Zanu
PF which has decided to look East," said Masunungure. "Nothing much will come from the East."
He said Makoni would steal most of his votes from disgruntled members of both Zanu PF and the MDC.
"Makoni is viewed as a reformer in Zanu PF and he would capture some votes mostly from his former political home. Note also that many of those who stood as independents are aligning themselves with Makoni," Masunungure said.
Another political analyst, who requested anonymity, said MDC could lose more voters because there will be less protest votes in next month's polls than in previous elections.
"People have another choice and some MDC supporters will definitely vote for Makoni because they see Tsvangirai as having failed to remove Mugabe. They will put their vote on a promising Makoni," he said. "Look at the number of people who registered as voters when Makoni announced his candidature."
Ibbo Mandaza, Makoni's election co-ordinator, last week claimed that voter registration increased by at least 45% soon after Makoni announced his presidential bid. Makoni also claimed credit for the increase in the number of people who visited registration centres across the country after he announced he would run for President.
"For us this is a huge sign and a positive development. This shows us that Makoni has given hope back to the people of Zimbabwe," Mandaza said.
But MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa said his party would prevail in next month's polls because they are fighting "a weaker, confused and divided Zanu PF".
"We will prevail. The division in Zanu PF is God-given and divine. We will take good advantage of that to defeat Zanu PF once and for all," Chamisa said, adding that the MDC now knows Zanu PF's rigging strategies from previous polls.
Chamisa believes that the MDC has matured in strategy, experience and has grown in numbers since its formation in 1999.
But Makumbe warned Chamisa of such complacency. He said if Mugabe was cornered, he would fall back on his rigging machinery. In previous polls Zanu PF has used war veterans and youth militia to intimidate and beat the electorate into submission.
"Everyone knows when Mugabe fears defeat, he unleashes violence and employs all sorts of tricks to ensure he is declared the winner," Makumbe said.
Zanu PF spokesperson Nathan Shamuyarira could not be reached for comment.
Whoever the winner will be, Zimbabweans need a President who respects human rights, the rule of law, promotes democracy, fosters economic growth and delivers them from the poverty they are currently wallowing in.
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