Kitsepile Nyathi
25 February 2008
Harare — Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe set the tone for a violence riddled election campaign Sunday when he described the decision by his former ally, Dr Simba Makoni to challenge him for the presidency as a big provocation.
Analysts say Mr Mugabe is not likely to win a credible election on March 29 against a reinvigorated opposition.
He desperately needs to win a violence free election that will enable him to regain the international recognition he has been craving for in the past six years.
Since his controversial victory in the last presidential elections in 2002, which were marred by state perpetrated violence, the United States and Europe have maintained sanctions targeted at Mr Mugabe's inner circle for alleged human rights abuses.
In a rally to mark his 84th birthday in the border town of Beitbridge, the ageing leader, whose party is expected to officially launch its election campaign this week, dismissed his opponents as puppets of the West who threatened the country's sovereignty.
Greatest challenge
Mr Mugabe faces what is probably his greatest electoral challenge from former ruling Zanu PF politburo member, Dr Simba Makoni and veteran opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai.
"This is a test on whether we are still the party that crushed small parties that came our way," the President said. "Who is Simba? In fact, what he did was the worst provocation we could get."
Mr Tsvangirai also used the official launch of his party's campaign to warn the ruling party that if he wins the March 29 general election, those who have been implicated in cases of political violence, which is becoming endemic in the country, will be prosecuted.
Political violence has been a permanent feature in the menu of any Zimbabwean election since independence and signs are already abound that next month's polls might even claim more casualties.
Last week, the United States warned its citizens that travelling to the restive Southern African country, in the run-up to the election might pose immense security risks.
"The national election season in Zimbabwe may pose a security threat to US citizens in Zimbabwe," the US embassy in Harare said in a statement.
"Previous elections in 2000, 2002 and 2005 were contentions and sparked food, water and fuel shortages as well as occasional outbreaks of violence."
"Given the present significantly weaker Zimbabwean economy, chronic hyperinflation and on-going shortages, the 2008 election season has the potential to generate widespread instability and violence."
Mr Mugabe, who in the past has been accused of bullying opponents with the aid of his storm troopers - the veterans of the country's war of liberation - is by all means cornered.
Observers say he is likely to resort to his tried and tested method of coercing voters to save his skin - the loyal former fighters.
The war veterans led the veteran president's controversial farm seizure programme, beating and killing several white farmers in a bid to force them to surrender their properties.
They threatened to 'deal' with Dr Makoni and his backers in the ruling party before the elections, an open admission that they were on the war path.
The former finance minister's last minute defection rocked the ruling party to its foundations as evidenced by the high level defections and chaotic primary elections, which were marred by intra-party violence.
One of the high profile victims was the Minister of Finance, Dr Samuel Mumbengegwi, whose official government vehicle was stoned by members of a rival faction during the primary elections.
He subsequently lost the election to a novice and went on to shock the Zanu PF establishment by filing his nomination papers to challenge the party's official candidate - another recipe for intra-party violence.
As if to prove the predictions by the American government correct, in another case, a gun-totting former minister and a member of Zanu PF was arrested for leading his supporters in a protest.
This was after he lost in the ruling party's controversial primary elections.
As if that was not enough, when the campaigns officially kicked of last week, leaders of the Progressive Teachers Union (PTUZ), were attacked by Zanu PF youths as they distributed flyers critical of the country's education system.
PTUZ represents about a third of Zimbabwean teachers, who also have borne the brunt of previous violent election campaigns, as they are accused of sympathising with the opposition.
Police, who have been accused of bias against opponents of the ruling party, picked up the leader of the union, Mr Raymond Majongwe and his colleagues accusing them of disturbing public peace.
They are now fighting for their lives at a Harare hospital under heavy police guard, following the clashes with the Zanu PF militias.
Police spokesman, Assistant Commissioner Wayne Bvudzijena said Mr Majongwe and members of his association allegedly provoked the Zanu PF youths by distributing the material.
"We condemn violence and we want to warn anyone bent on causing disturbances that they will be dealt with accordingly without fear or favour," he told the state media. He said a Zanu PF youth involved in the clashes had also been arrested.
The clashes coincided with an announcement that police in the country's two provinces had banned the carrying of dangerous weapons in anticipation of an upsurge in cases of politically motivated violence in the run-up to the polls.
Banned weapons include machetes, spears, knobkerries, swords, knives and daggers.
In another case, a husband of a long serving legislator who allegedly torched the homestead of a party official suspected of supporting a rival in the disputed Zanu PF primary elections appeared in court facing arson charges.
The issue of political violence is also likely to dominate the campaign, with opposition candidates accusing the government of institutionalising violence.
Mr Tsvangirai said if the MDC wins the election it will establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission modelled along the lines of the one set up in post apartheid South Africa.
He said the commission will investigate human rights abuses in the country since independence and recommend the prosecution of perpetrators.
In the policy document launched with the party's manifesto on Saturday, the MDC said there had been four main periods of gross human rights violations, which were all tied to electioneering.
It added that the commission would investigate the 1980-7 Gukurahundi military campaign, where the government was accused of deploying North Korean trained troops in the southern parts of the country to purge supporters of the then opposition PF Zapu.
The conflict ended in 1987, with PF Zapu entering into a unity accord with Zanu PF after nearly 20 000 civilians were killed.
Another dark period to be investigated, the MDC says is the 2000 land reform programme where Mr Mugabe's supporters invaded white owned commercial farms whose owners were accused of funding the opposition.
Urban clean operation
There is also the 2005 urban clean operation that targeted opposition strongholds and the "violence and destruction of property during the struggle to restore democracy in Zimbabwe."
"In each of these four periods of intense political suppression, thousands of criminal acts were committed, hundreds of thousands experienced human rights abuses and even the death of loved ones or suffered physical injury of one kind or another."
It added that the commission would be in place three months after it assumes office.
The MDC claims since its formation in 1999, thousands of its supporters have died at the hands of Zanu PF supporters and state agents.
However, there is raging debate on whether threatening Mr Mugabe with prosecution when he leaves office will help motivate him to give way to a new leader.
In 2006, the former guerrilla leader had encouraged open debate and even appeared to have anointed his Vice President Mrs Joyce Mujuru to succeed him, only to make a u-turn the following year and seek another term.
This led to speculation that he was afraid of suffering the same fate as former Liberian leader, Mr Charles Taylor who is now facing numerous cases of human rights violation at The Hague.
In March last year, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) was forced to intervene in Zimbabwe when Mr Tsvangirai and several fellow opposition leaders were severely tortured after they tried to attend a prayer meeting in Harare.
Encouraged debate
South African President Thabo Mbeki was tasked with bringing the ruling party and the opposition into the negotiating table to ensure a free and fair poll this year.
But after a year of negotiations that yielded little in electoral reforms, the MDC announced that the talks had broken down without any major breakthrough or assurances from Mr Mugabe that the elections will be free and fair.
"In the circumstances, we hold the firm view that the 2008 elections which are being held under the same conditions as previous disputed elections cannot by any stretch of the imagination yield a legitimate outcome," said Mr Tendai Biti of the Mr Tsvangirai led MDC.
The Zimbabwean government says it will not welcome election monitors and observers especially from Western countries who have declared previous elections as not free and fair.
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Mugabe is very intelligent,he sensed danger on the march 2008 elections thus he introduced Makoni in the picture.Makoni is in the picture only to distruct Tsvangirayi,so that there would be share of votes between Makoni and Tsvangirayi on the urban population were Mugabe knows that there is no support for him,leaving him to enjoy all the rural votes.Knowing Mugabe and his ruthlessness,who in Zanu PF can stand to oppose him without signing his death warrant.Its a trap and I hope Zimbabwean won't fall for this one.Tsvangirayi had been through alot,lets not be deceived by these die hard Zanu PF thieves.Mugabe and all his Zanu PF thieves knows that if Tsvangirayi wins,all the illegal farm,mine envasion that are doing will definately catch up with them.
Shelton Harare
The elections in Zimbabwe are not about white anglo minority farmers, but rather what the majority of Zimbabweans believe the country should be heading. Most people pretty much agree with the land reform. No politician in Zimbabwe can win the presidency without supporting land reform. Ya...white anglo minorities delude themselves, that most Zimbabweans are for them. That is utter rubbish!!!
Zanu (Mugabe)will not win this time around, all the bickering about him getting away with it will not work this time around, change is imminent, without him of-course.