6 March 2008
Maputo — A tropical cyclone is heading for northern Mozambique and is likely to make landfall on Saturday.
As of Thursday morning, cyclone Jokwe was clipping the northern tip of Madagascar. It was slowing down over Madagascar, and the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre put its wind speed at 55 knots (100 kilometres an hour), with gusts of 65 knots (120 kilometres an hour).
But cyclones intensify over the open ocean, and so as Jokwe moves across the Mozambique Channel, its wind speeds will become faster. As it approaches the Mozambican coast, a wind speed of almost 140 kilometres an hour, and gusts of up to 167 kilometres an hour are forecast.
On its current course, the centre of the storm system will make landfall somewhere near the northern port of Nacala on Saturday morning. This is well to the north of the river valleys of central Mozambique that suffered severe flooding in January and February, and so it is unlikely that Jokwe will worsen the situation of the flood victims.
Last month Madagascar took the full brunt of another Indian Ocean cyclone, codenamed Ivan. Some journalists who should have known better hyped up the threat cyclone Ivan supposedly posed to Mozambique. But Ivan hit central Madagascar, and dissipated as it crossed the island. As on many earlier occasions, Madagascar acted as a natural buffer, protecting Mozambique from the full fury of Indian Ocean storms.
Jokwe is different, since it is not likely to be over Madagascar long enough for the storm system to collapse.
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