It is inevitable that parallels and analogies will be drawn between the widely disputed General Election in Nigeria in April 2007 and Kenya's December duel.
The way the local, national, regional and international communities responded to the outcomes compel comparison.
Observers were unanimous in declaring the Nigerian elections a robbery of voters.
The opposition that 'lost' to the ruling PDP cried foul. Yet neither the anger of the 'robbed' citizens nor the frustrated ambitions of the opposition supporters deterred the PDP from claiming victory.
The mass campaign threatened by the opposition and angrier sections of the Civil Society came to nought. At the end of the day, the opposition headed for the courts. There was nobody in the international community who had threatened the PDP with travel bans and sanctions.
One of the most interesting things about the internal and external reactions to the Kenyan case was the insistence that it was not a legal matter but a political one.
The Kenya government like their Nigerian counterpart insisted that any grievances should be settled through petitions and courts. But it was clear that this was a minority position and was increasingly seen as self-serving.
Why did Nigerian opposition go to court and the Kenyan one did not? It has to do with the relative strength, legitimacy and capacity of the parties involved.
The Kenyan opposition may not be strong in terms of party loyalties but form a greater formidable force politically than their Nigerian counterpart.
They were united by a shared sense of being robbed of victory. There was no such perception in Nigeria. No one could say either Buhari or Atiku 'won' the way ODM supporters felt their man, Raila, 'won.' Nigeria's political waters are so muddied that many will argue both opposition and the government rigged.
A presidential petition in Nigeria was decided against the two complainants. Why?
It has to do with both the balance of power internally and the geo strategic interests of others: sub region, regional, continental and extra continental. But more importantly the Kenyan ruling class is better integrated into global capitalism than their Nigerian counterpart.
Nigerian government theoretically does not even need Nigerian citizens. It does not depend on them for taxes. It needs only Shell and the other oil companies to keep pumping oil.
Tajudeen is Deputy Director, Africa - United Nations Millennium Campaign.
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