Gaborone — The forthcoming elections in Zimbabwe are very crucial to both the country and the region. Zimbabwean journalist, JERRY BUNGU believes that the election will be 'a sham'.

South Africa, which has been tasked by SADC with mediating the political meltdown in that country between Zanu PF and MDC has not done anything to write home about. The situation is not helped by the stance that South Africa is taking, going to observe the Zimbabwe elections under the auspices of SADC and not as an independent observer as has been the case in the previous elections.

They are going there a week before the elections. Mbeki should complete his report to SADC by monitoring the elections as a mediator who has been working on the peace process since he was tasked a year or two ago. This will not happen.

Coming on board at the eleventh hour, Simbarashe Makoni was, until he was fired as finance minister, Mugabe's "bell-boy" since the early 1980s.

He was relieved of his cabinet post and pushed to head the newly formed Southern African Development Community Conference (SADCC), transformed to SADC at the end of his term. Mugabe had a point to prove to the regional bloc that his country had the capability to lead the region, a task Makoni executed with relative ease and diligence.

Going back home, Makoni found a different Zimbabwe altogether from the one he left. He lay low for some time while running a regional economic consultancy firm, Makonsult.

Running short of economic think tanks after mysterious departure of trade and industry minister, Nkosana Moyo, Makoni was roped into finance as "Mr Fix It" who was supposed to arrest the economic free fall of the country.

That was never to be. When Mugabe threw the spanner in the works by firing Makoni after differences of opinion on the economic reforms proposed by the chemist-turned-business-leader.

Makoni again lay low in the Zanu (PF) circles until recently when undercover BBC World Affairs Editor, John Simpson rocked the ruling party's boat by writing that Makoni was poised to make a comeback as Mugabe's challenger in the forthcoming presidential elections.

Makoni's bid to succeed Mugabe as the leader of the party failed when Mugabe was endorsed as the presidential candidate at the December 2007 Zanu (PF) congress in Bulawayo.

But why does he come at the eleventh hour for such crucial elections, both the local and the international community ask? The strategy remains hiden, but it is known the world over that no one has been brave enough to challenge Mugabe's leadership from within his party.

The political playing field in Zimbabwe has never been level. Anyone with clear political intentions will be subjected to the wrath of the notorious Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) which has been used as the ruling Zanu (PF)'s political suppression machinery.

In Zimbabwe, political affiliation remains a secret until the voter reaches the ballot box for fear of victimisation by those who hold a divergent view.

But this Makoni who has come so late has a lot to do to garner the support of the masses where Mugabe has a strong grip. As an intellectual, he has the support of the elite and those in the Diaspora but unfortunately there are no votes from the Diaspora and intellectuals are known for not voting.

Who then is going to vote for Makoni in that scenario? And the rural populace know parties and not the independent phenomenon that Makoni falls under, scuppering his chances of getting the much-needed votes.

This has left us with so many questions: Is Makoni not a Zanu (PF)-sponsored vote splitting agent for the opposition? How genuine is he? And should he win how is he going to rule with Zanu (PF) and MDC cadres around him?

There are reports that he has the support of other disgruntled Zanu (PF) cadres such as the husband of the Vice President, retired army general, Solomon Mujuru, and the intelligence supremo, Dumiso Dabengwa. What does this mean to the voters? It means by virtue of the vice president's husband being in the Makoni camp, even the VP is also in that camp? Common sense would tell us that the Vice President discusses politics with her husband.

Morgan Tsvangirai's vibrancy had penetrated even the rural folk but his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) lost the momentun when it was dormant from 2002, especially after the split of the party.

Now the intellectuals and the elite who had put their allegiance on MDC have departed since they do not know whether to follow the Tsvangirai faction or Arthur Mutambara.

But not all hope is lost. The coming in of Simba Makoni has also overshadowed MDC in every respect.

First there are three formidable presidential contenders, for some reason the Mutambara faction of MDC has not fielded any presidential candidate.

Secondly, it has left the electorate so confused that in the process Tsvangirai will lose votes in favour of Makoni, and thirdly if genuine it will also steal significant votes from the ruling Zanu (PF).

However, history has got a tendency of repeating itself. Defections like Makoni's have happened in the past in the late 80s when one of the politburo members, Edgar Tekere, formed the Zimbabwe United Movement (ZUM) which ended nowhere even though it had the support of the majority.

Zimbabwean political parties and their leaders have got a tendency of disappointing their followers and we hope this is not going to be the case with Makoni whether he wins or not.

People do not want politicians who vanish into thin air after elections only to resurface after the six years when elections will be held again.

The other big reason that makes Zimbabwe elections a sham is the capacity to hold the three-faceted presidential, parliamentary and senate elections at one go. Pointers are that the system cannot hold and in the confusion rigging is going to be rampant.

Mugabe maintains a grip on state machinery like the army and police in such a way that we do not expect post-election violence as happened in Kenya after the December 2007 elections. Zimbabweans know very well that their security forces are mightier than the mighty.

Our hope as Zimbabweans is that whoever gets Zimbabwe's top job should deliver the economy from ruin and by all means that cannot be done by those who ruined it. Zimbabwe has been dogged by a shortage of basic food stuffs, fuel and foreign currency. Unemployment is at 80 percent while the country has recorded run away inflation of over 100,000 percent which has never been seen anywhere in the world.