allAfrica.com: Botswana: 'Make Or Break' Elections for Zimbabwe (Page 1 of 2)

The forthcoming elections in Zimbabwe are very crucial to both the country and the region. Zimbabwean journalist, JERRY BUNGU believes that the election will be 'a sham'.

South Africa, which has been tasked by SADC with mediating the political meltdown in that country between Zanu PF and MDC has not done anything to write home about. The situation is not helped by the stance that South Africa is taking, going to observe the Zimbabwe elections under the auspices of SADC and not as an independent observer as has been the case in the previous elections.

They are going there a week before the elections. Mbeki should complete his report to SADC by monitoring the elections as a mediator who has been working on the peace process since he was tasked a year or two ago. This will not happen.

Coming on board at the eleventh hour, Simbarashe Makoni was, until he was fired as finance minister, Mugabe's "bell-boy" since the early 1980s.

He was relieved of his cabinet post and pushed to head the newly formed Southern African Development Community Conference (SADCC), transformed to SADC at the end of his term. Mugabe had a point to prove to the regional bloc that his country had the capability to lead the region, a task Makoni executed with relative ease and diligence.

Going back home, Makoni found a different Zimbabwe altogether from the one he left. He lay low for some time while running a regional economic consultancy firm, Makonsult.

Running short of economic think tanks after mysterious departure of trade and industry minister, Nkosana Moyo, Makoni was roped into finance as "Mr Fix It" who was supposed to arrest the economic free fall of the country.

That was never to be. When Mugabe threw the spanner in the works by firing Makoni after differences of opinion on the economic reforms proposed by the chemist-turned-business-leader.

Makoni again lay low in the Zanu (PF) circles until recently when undercover BBC World Affairs Editor, John Simpson rocked the ruling party's boat by writing that Makoni was poised to make a comeback as Mugabe's challenger in the forthcoming presidential elections.

Makoni's bid to succeed Mugabe as the leader of the party failed when Mugabe was endorsed as the presidential candidate at the December 2007 Zanu (PF) congress in Bulawayo.

But why does he come at the eleventh hour for such crucial elections, both the local and the international community ask? The strategy remains hiden, but it is known the world over that no one has been brave enough to challenge Mugabe's leadership from within his party.

The political playing field in Zimbabwe has never been level. Anyone with clear political intentions will be subjected to the wrath of the notorious Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) which has been used as the ruling Zanu (PF)'s political suppression machinery.

In Zimbabwe, political affiliation remains a secret until the voter reaches the ballot box for fear of victimisation by those who hold a divergent view.

But this Makoni who has come so late has a lot to do to garner the support of the masses where Mugabe has a strong grip. As an intellectual, he has the support of the elite and those in the Diaspora but unfortunately there are no votes from the Diaspora and intellectuals are known for not voting.

Who then is going to vote for Makoni in that scenario? And the rural populace know parties and not the independent phenomenon that Makoni falls under, scuppering his chances of getting the much-needed votes.

This has left us with so many questions: Is Makoni not a Zanu (PF)-sponsored vote splitting agent for the opposition? How genuine is he? And should he win how is he going to rule with Zanu (PF) and MDC cadres around him?

There are reports that he has the support of other disgruntled Zanu (PF) cadres such as the husband of the Vice President, retired army general, Solomon Mujuru, and the intelligence supremo, Dumiso Dabengwa. What does this mean to the voters? It means by virtue of the vice president's husband being in the Makoni camp, even the VP is also in that camp? Common sense would tell us that the Vice President discusses politics with her husband.

Morgan Tsvangirai's vibrancy had penetrated even the rural folk but his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) lost the momentun when it was dormant from 2002, especially after the split of the party.

Now the intellectuals and the elite who had put their allegiance on MDC have departed since they do not know whether to follow the Tsvangirai faction or Arthur Mutambara.

But not all hope is lost. The coming in of Simba Makoni has also overshadowed MDC in every respect.

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