Ryder Gabathuse
14 March 2008
Gaborone — As the curtain falls on the bruising battle in the race for the vacant Palapye constituency today, tomorrow will be crucial for the opposition which wants to'unseat' the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).
The Palapye constituency has been the stronghold of the ruling BDP since independence and it has been difficult for any party to pose a serious threat. The contesting parties at the weekend by-election caused by the resignation of former Cabinet minister, Boyce Sebetela, are the BDP, Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and Botswana National Front (BNF).
Moiseraele Master Goya stands for the BDP, James Mpho Olesitse for the BCP, and Sentsho Malatsi, the BNF. If tomorrow's by-election were a football match, it would be a 'cup final' reflected in the contesting camps. There is a lot of excitement here as people ready themselves to join queues tomorrow to cast their vote. Eligible voters know exactly who their choice is in a three-man race. The million dollar question though is: "Who is going to win?" This is a tricky question that should better be left to the voters to answer tomorrow. But, assessing dynamics in the village, the temptation is to give the ruling BDP an upper hand. The onus is on the BDP to prove that it wants to retain the seat. The BDP has the requisite numbers. Generally, BDP is a party of conservatives whose support for their party never flounders in the face of adversity. Professor Sheila Tlou has taken it upon herself to drum up support for Goya early this week. It is, for the BDP, a good sign that she is determined to see her party winning tomorrow's by-election. The great battle will persuade some of her 'disillusioned' supporters to vote for Goya. The party has been holding a lot of in-house meetings at
Tsholetsa Hall to overcome the threatening possibility that some of them might 'boycott' the election. So, the fate of the BDP will be determined internally rather than externally. That the BDP has consistently won the previous general elections with wide margins gives the ruling party a psychological advantage over the other parties. In the 2004 general election, the BDP, represented by Sebetela, won by a margin of well over 1,500 votes. The party has not lost a significant number of its members to the opposition parties. There has been some movement across the parties, but it is not anything that should cause any drama. In the Palapye race, there is just no way that the BCP can be dismissed. The party won Morupule ward in a BDP-dominated area in 2004. The ward gas sent indicators that permit supporters of the BCP to believe that Olesitse has a good chance of winning. The party held smooth primaries and this offered them a good opportunity to sell the party policies and the candidate ahead of the other organisations. The BCP is held up as the only party that continues to attract a lot of young people to its side here.
Olesitse is an experienced politician who has been working hard in Palapye in previous elections and if experience should count, he could win. Although the BCP blamed lack of resources as a challenging factor, the party's campaign manager, Moncho Moncho, was hopeful that with the little that they have amassed, winning was not a remote possibility. "If you media people have written us off, you better reconsider us as a viable contender," he says. The party enjoys a lot of support from the working class which could help it win.
Already there is talk that if the BCP wins "we could request the party leadership that we hold the BCP 10th anniversary celebrations here". To them, counting the chickens before they are hatched could be a suicidal move but the BCP insists that this is the mood prevailing in their camp. Their hope is also carried by the fact that "we planted our cadres to contest the BDP primaries to vote for a weaker candidate in Goya". BCP councillor for Mmopane, Phagenyane Phage, addressing a political rally in Palapye Wednesday, revealed: "We have dispatched our own people to vote in the BDP primaries. Our cadres did exactly what we had asked them to do. This will definitely pay dividends".
He pointed out that "it is now pay back time for our political strategy of ntlodisa molatswana or help me across the river". He shouted that now it was the BCP's turn to punish Goya by abandoning him when he least expects it. The party also had differences after their primaries, but it seems that is water under the bridge. The BNF knows that it is not a factor in tomorrow's election. They got into the race when it was already on full swing. Secondly, they have 'confessed' in previous interviews that their candidate, Sentsho, was brought in merely as a face-saving measure.
In a race that is dominated by youthful candidates, BNF campaign manager, Eitlhopha Mokeresete, indicated that they brought in the 72-year-old candidate to prepare for the 2009 general election. The man who was preferred for the job was 'disqualified'. He described Malatsi as a political veteran whose credentials speak volumes about his experience in the field. He thanked the man for rescuing the party at the eleventh hour. The BNF will use the by-election as guidance and preparation for the 2009 general election.
They also do not expect much as they have not put much into the race. Their worry was that had they decided to opt out of the election, that would be tantamount to telling the electorate "to forget about the BNF", hence the move to participate in the by-election.
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