Kampala — The NRM's Robert Rutaro won the Makerere guild elections after almost a decade-long dry spell for the ruling party. Some may see the guild polls as a small local issue but strategists may draw lessons from it.

Why did the FDC and DP, hitherto giants in Makerere politics, lose? Is the NRM gaining popularity among the youth and elite?

Most NRM supporters are rural peasants whose political choices are partly influenced by historical factors such as bad past regimes. But most youth were either too young in the 1970s/early 1980s or were born after 1986 when the country was peaceful and look at the present more than the past. NRM officials should find out whether Rutaro's victory means the party is making inroads into the elite and youth constituency.

Some Makerere students base their choices on funny reasons such as the candidate's looks, quality of posters and 'logistics'. The FDC candidate was not as physically appealing as Gerald Karuhanga while the DP candidate was not as well-facilitated as outgoing Susan Abo. Rutaro had a strong campaign team that included top party officials and a lot of logistics. Rutaro beat the runners up by only 200 votes while the third and fourth best candidates, who both belonged to FDC originally, polled more than his votes if they were to add theirs together. And the turn up was less than 15% of the total student population.

Makerere is the biggest university in Uganda and attracts most of the brightest brains from all sections of the population. Therefore winning the guild race can be a yardstick for a party's popularity among the youth in general.

The youth are a strong political force because they are the biggest demographic group and can influence the thinking of their mostly semi-illiterate poor relatives. As the latter reduce in number, Amin and Obote become less relevant in national politics. Yet the urban dwellers and the educated are increasing in number due to UPE and USE. Therefore, it is important to focus on more programmes that address the welfare of the schooled youth - that bring jobs and money to them.