Harare — WITH just over a week to go before Zimbabwe's critical presidential election, polls show President Robert Mugabe is trailing main opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and latecomer Simba Makoni is a potential surprise winner.

A survey conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute shows that last week Tsvangirai was leading by 28,3%, while Mugabe was behind with 20,3% of the vote.

Makoni had 8,6% but could emerge as a shock winner because there is a huge pool of voters who refused to reveal their choices.

Most of the undecided voters are likely to be Makoni's supporters, the survey says.

At least 23,5% said their vote was their secret, 7,5% refused to say anything, 5,4% will not vote, 4,4% said "I don't know", 1,9% were categorised as "other", and 1% will vote for Langton Towungana, the other candidate in the election. Tsvangirai is likely to win in urban areas, while Mugabe was bound to win in rural areas. Makoni has appeal both in urban and rural areas.

Political scientist Prof Eldred Masunungure, who headed the national survey, said the main message from the poll was that none of the presidential election candidates would win an outright majority unless there was vote-rigging.