Abdulahi Ahmednasir
20 March 2008
opinion
Nairobi — It is inevitable that the political accord between President Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga will be incorporated into the Constitution come Tuesday.
This act on the part of Parliament will give a much- needed constitutional solidity to the subsequent creation of a grand coalition government, and a fully-fledged Cabinet will be inaugurated by next week.
Both parties have made their choices and are awaiting the President to determine the size of the Cabinet.
The inside story is that both sides faced a multitude of challenging issues in selecting their members of the Cabinet.
President Kibaki and Raila addressed the issue of whether their sides of the Cabinet will have individuals implicated in grand corruption. Both sides had little difficulties in deciding to ignore the corruption allegations against their prospective Cabinet nominees. They found collective solace in the political rationalisation that there are no criminal convictions against anyone and mere allegations are not just good enough. Both sides have included decorated veterans of corruption in the Cabinet.
The gender issue was another tricky one for both leaders and they have decided to give this issue some token consideration. Age was also a dicey issue. Both have decided the youth will be the future and not present leaders. Both leaders have decided not to retire octogenarian politicians. Kibaki and Raila have ethnic bases in their communities, how many ministers will come from their ethnic groups? You will soon be surprised! Through their choice of Cabinet, Kibaki and Raila have realised that they have more similarities than differences. The philosophy is the same. The style is different.
The first fundamental issue the two principals grabbled was a determination of the Cabinet size. With already 17 ministers and being entitled to only 50 per cent, President Kibaki is bogged in political quick mire. If he decides to go for a lean Cabinet he has to sack five members of the current Cabinet. Raila is politically astute and may publicly signal he would prefer a lean Cabinet. The political reality is that he needs a big team to satisfy the demands of his hotchpotch of political faction. Kibaki is unlikely to go for it, but can play smart politics in settling on a lean Cabinet. Unlike Raila, he will retire from politics in five years time. He does not need to build a political machine for future endeavours. Second, in the absence of an opposition party in Parliament he does not need the loyalty of anyone or numbers in Parliament.
Raila, on the other hand, is in a tight spot. Unlike Kibaki, he has no say in the size of the Cabinet. A lean Cabinet of say 24 to 28 will be disastrous for the cohesion of his party. With about 110 MPs, Raila will be hard pressed to maintain harmony in the party and strike a delicate regional and ethnic balance while at the same time rewarding key constituencies of his power base.
The other difficult issue the leaders faced was how to share Cabinet portfolios. It is no exaggeration to state that both parties have been combing the ministerial budgetary allocations for the year to determine the category of ministries they target. The choice of ministries was informed by two interesting factors. First, the most important consideration of which ministries to target was not informed by the strategic national importance of a given ministry, but by its budgetary allocation.
State corporations
The second consideration was to tabulate the numbers of parastatals in the ministry. The more parastatals, the merrier. That is why despite the national importance of ministries like Livestock, Fisheries, Environment, Science and Technology, Labour and Education, both sides will treat them as the Siberia of the Cabinet.The highly sought after ministries are Finance, Trade and Industry, Energy, Agriculture (mainly because of the opportunities provided by the comesa sugar quota), Roads, Transport and Telecommunication. These ministries have huge budgetary allocation and have a good number of lucrative parastatals. The ministers who occupy these portfolios in case they decide to eat a toad will eat a fat and juicy one.
Once the Cabinet is constituted, both leaders must address issues that go a long way in determining their place in history. They must play an active role in ensuring that the coalition does not collapse. The early signs are that President Kibaki and Raila are determined to go the full length in ensuring that their cohabitation passes the test of time. The danger is posed by two sets of people.
First, there are those close to both leaders who always think they are more aggrieved than the principals. These are the Rasputins and due to their proximity to the leaders, can always sow the seeds of discord and mistrust. This group has the singular distinction of perusing their personal interest and to remain relevant, they have to counter imaginary moves from the other side. The second group are the foot soldiers of both parties. Each party has a large contingent of foot soldiers whose rationale in politics is to remain relevant. These political warriors will be working hard to reignite a conflict so that their relevance is quickly reasserted.
Kenyans continue to manhandle and treat with contempt the chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya, Mr Samuel Kiviutu. He is in a way paying for his part in the disputed General Election of December 27 and his stiff-necked refusal to resign.
Strangely, neither President Kibaki nor Raila has called for his resignation. Both are comfortable with the chairman and are tacitly giving him a vote of confidence notwithstanding his mounting tribulations. Did Kivuitu give them equal opportunities to rig the December 27 elections? Maintaining the status quo was probably agreed between the principals during their long negotiations.
The writer is a lawyer and former Law Society of Kenya chairman.
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The team of corruptly decorated people in the Kibaki/Raila Cabinet is the mother of setbacks of our national leadership. No one seems to hold a dream for this nation. We seem to recycle heads even at the time we are badly choked. We have never conceived champions of change, leave alone seeing one. Those who clamour for change are the same brands of camouflage clad in gowns of tribal fathers, their wives being 'mothers'. They keep real change-stars in the periphery of public scenes by use of dirty tactics. They select tribal chieftains to help them balance their heinous schemes… [Read Full Text]