allAfrica.com: Kenya: Raila's Political Life Comes Full Circle (Page 1 of 2)

For a very long time, the political detractors of Prime Minister-designate Raila Odinga maintained that he was "unelectable."

This notion changed last year during the presidential election campaigns, when opinion polls started showing Mr Odinga - who was contesting on an Orange Democratic Movement ticket - in the lead.

The opinion polls, disputed by his opponents time and again, continued to project him as a strong contender by a big margin, save for once when Mr Mwai Kibaki closed in on him, and again his (Odinga's) opponents had reason to celebrate.

But their celebration was short-lived as, once again, the lead widened, and when Kenyans went to the polls, initial results proved psephologists right as Mr Odinga led the two other contenders.

As the initial results continued to be announced, Mr Odinga's supporters were convinced that he had won and was headed for State House. Pentagon member William Ruto, while addressing supporters in Eldoret two days after the voting, told them that "it was just a matter of hours before Raila Odinga was declared Kenya's fourth President."

But it was not just his supporters alone. Many editors knew it was a "done deal" and many had even briefed journalists to write the profile of Raila Odinga, "Kenya's fourth President."

But they had to hold their pens when results from President Kibaki's strongholds started trickling in and the lead started narrowing, leading to chaotic scenes at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre where the ECK was announcing results from.

Then came the announcement that Mr Kibaki had won and all hell broke loose and the country started burning - literally.

The Enigma

The way the opinion poll results went could be a pointer to how Mr Odinga's life has been - unpredictable. It has had more downs than ups, but he is a resilient schemer, a quality his opponents will agree many of them lack.

When the country was on fire, Mr Odinga figured that if the matter of "stolen elections" was confined to the country's borders, he would lose out. As such, he made good use of the international media, and never in the 44-year history of independent Kenya has the international media focused so much on Kenya.

This tactic paid off and international figures started trooping to Kenya in order to find a solution to the political and humanitarian crisis sparked by the disputed election results.

Mr Odinga played his cards right and even when it was said that his party also rigged elections, the government came out as the bad guy whenever it tried to defend itself over allegations that it rigged elections or that it was using excessive force in restoring calm.

Mr Odinga stuck to his guns that he would only meet Mister Kibaki - as he called President Kibaki then - in the presence of international mediators. And he had his way.

To add insult to the injured image of the government, any international figure who met President Kibaki met him too, yet he was dismissed as a loser, a pretender to the throne who wanted power through the backdoor.

Political affiliations aside, many Kenyan media practitioners will have to admit that either Mr Odinga has learnt the art of (mis)using the media to his advantage, or the person or persons who handle his media and public relations package him well because they understand their product, nay, client - him.

As the title of his biography, Raila Odinga: The Enigma of Kenyan Politics suggests, the man is truly an enigma and just when people thought he had written his political obituary, he managed to rise, like the proverbial phoenix from the ashes, baffling friend and foe alike.

Rise from ashes

Like when he resigned from his parliamentary seat which he had earlier won on a FORD-Kenya ticket to contest under the little-known National Development Party.

He recaptured the Langata seat in a by-election marked by a very low voter turnout, but he made it back to Parliament.

His move from FORD-Kenya was precipitated by wrangles by other members over the control of the party, which was once headed by his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

When he moved to NDP, his foes thought that he was committing political suicide, but in the 1997 General Election, he emerged a strong third in the Presidential Elections, behind Mwai Kibaki of the Democratic Party and the winner, Daniel arap Moi of Kanu.

He beat Kijana Wamalwa of FORD-Kenya and Charity Ngilu of Social Democratic Party. Even though his party did not win many seats outside his native Nyanza Province, its presence was felt in Parliament, with one of its members, Otieno Kajwang, moving a motion of no confidence in the then Vice-President, Prof George Saitoti, over allegations that he was involved in the Goldenberg scandal.

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