allAfrica.com: Zimbabwe: Mugabe Faces Toughest Challenge Ever (Page 1 of 2)

As Zimbabweans go to polls on March 29, odds - which political analysts say are of his own creation - are likely to be against the country's leader Robert Mugabe.

Mugabe, who has been at the helm of Zimbabwe's leadership since the country gained independence from Great Britain in 1980, seeks a sixth year term that ends in 2013.

But things might not be easy for the incumbent. Mugabe is contesting on his erstwhile ruling Zanu PF party against his former Finance minister Mr Simba Makoni and trade unionist Mr Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

Analysts say it is Mugabe's own creation and policies that will work against him.Dr Lovemore Madhuku said while he predicted a "victory" for Mugabe, he said the way Mugabe had "run down" the economy is haunting him. "This poll presents the toughest challenge for Mugabe even if he is likely to manipulate the system and win," said Madhuku, who is an ardent critic of Mugabe.

"Makoni is his creation and poses a real challenge to him, so does Tsvangirai. That is the same for the crumbling economy. Had it not been for that Mugabe would not be haunted at all. He has reduced everyone to a beggar in Zimbabwe."

Zimbabwe is going through its worst economic experience since independence, with a recession for more than a decade now. International financial institutions, such as the World Bank, say Zimbabwe has the fastest shrinking economy of a country outside a war zone, and the highest inflation rate in the world - currently officially at more than 100,000 per cent.

The country is facing acute shortage of all essentials - from drugs, electricity, fuel, foreign currency; cash to basic goods such said maize meal, milk, soap and cooking oil.

On the parallel market that is thriving, Zimbabwe-dollar is trading at more than $52 million (after removal of three zeroes) against the green back.

For one to go to a nightclub or a drink, he needs about a billion dollars, thanks to the Central Bank there are now $10 million notes, otherwise one would need a bag to ferry the money.

Unemployment rate stands at more than 80 per cent. Crossing borders to neighbouring South Africa and Mozambique has now become a booming business for many. Over reliance on fast shrinking agricultural and manufacturing sectors has resulted to acute shortage of commodities.

"As long as Mugabe is there I will continue to go to South Africa to buy groceries for my family and for-sale," says 34 year-old Janet Mutimutema. "I just pray that this election brings this to an end because it (crossing borders) is risky and tiresome."

A former accounts clerk with a London Stock Exchange listed financial giant, Mutimutema, like many Zimbabweans, was retrenched. This was after her company failed to absorb the stress the economy imposed on it. She sells basic commodities such as cooking oil, shoes, soap, powdered milk and eggs that she imports from South Africa.

Other people are now going to China, Malaysia and Dubai to import electrical goods, clothes and shoes for re-sale in Zimbabwe. But even then the export-import trade is not easy as the police often carry out a crackdown and confiscate foreign currency.

"The business is brisk especially when you get your orders before leaving. The only problem comes when the police makes a crackdown and confiscate the foreign currency," said Kudakwashe Njanji, who frequents the Harare-Abu Dhabi route in search of wealth.

A former school teacher, Njanji says: "I think all that is coming to an end come March 29. I am tired of this kind of life. I went to school expecting to have a decent life, but one man has made it his policy to make my life miserable."

A drive through the streets of Harare shows posters with Mugabe having been defaced despite the watchful eye of the security agency.

One man is serving a custodial sentence for defacing Mugabe's posters in Epworth, about 20km east of Harare.

"There is a lot of anger in the air, only a miracle can save Mugabe this time," says Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, a parliamentary candidate for the MDC faction that is backing Makoni. She has been an MP for Glen Norah, one of Harare's poorest suburbs. "I can feel that his days are numbered and he is living on borrowed patience. Mugabe has caused a lot of suffering to this country, economically and otherwise."

Mugabe accuses the Western powers, especially United States and Britain, for the economic woes his country is facing. He argues that the economic sanctions and travel bans imposed on him and his cronies by US and the European Union have now taken effect on ordinary Zimbabweans.

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