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Zimbabwe: Analysts Dismiss Chances of Free And Fair Election
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SW Radio Africa (London)
ANALYSIS
27 March 2008
Posted to the web 27 March 2008
Lance Guma
This Saturday marks a defining moment in Zimbabwe's history as millions are expected to turn up at the polling stations to cast their votes. But a growing number of analysts have said the chances of a free and fair poll are slim.
Many obstacles have been put in front of the opposition and the arrest of a pilot meant to ferry Morgan Tsvangirai to several rural rallies this week served as a good example of the uneven electoral field. The MDC leader had to cancel his rallies, much to the disappointment of waiting supporters. Meanwhile Robert Mugabe's trips to rural areas using three air force helicopters went ahead as scheduled.
Serious concerns also remain over the use of postal ballots by members of the security forces. Conflicting reports say only 20 000 required their use and yet 75 000 actually voted, not just once but several times.
Then information leaked to the opposition suggests the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission ordered Fidelity Printers to print 600 000 postal ballots. Given that Robert Mugabe beat Tsvangirai by about 400 000 votes in the controversial 2002 presidential election, the math is not lost on many analysts. Even worse are accusations that 9 million ballot papers have been printed, when the number of registered voters is officially 5,9 million. Little wonder the MDC say they entered the election, 'with a heavy heart.'
The state controlled media has basically shut out the opposition and restricted them to appearances on negative reports. But things slightly changed this week when the number of observers increased and a few reports covering the opposition began to emerge.
But political violence in some parts of the country has continued unabated. Activists are being abducted, beaten up and then handed over to the police under the guise of 'citizens arrests.' The police force has also been implicated in the assault of opposition activists. Adding to the mix are threats from the army, police and prison chiefs that they will never be loyal to an opposition led government.
Mugabe's tactics remain the same as previous elections, but this time around there is a difference. Even Zanu PF want change now. Members of the army and security forces are providing election rigging information to the opposition and vibrant activism groups have also been key in exposing election flaws.
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Clearly worried about any criticism over the blatant rigging that is already in place, Mugabe has only invited so-called friendly nations to observe the elections. National Constitutional Assembly chairperson Lovemore Mahuku said the election is being treated like a birthday party, where Mugabe invites only his friends. Nations whose governments have been critical of the regime have been excluded.
Most people interviewed by Newsreel are pinning their hopes on the fact that counting of votes at individual polling stations will make it difficult for Mugabe to rig. The defection of Simba Makoni also shows a fundamental shift in support for Mugabe.
But key to these elections is the shift in the population at large. People have been openly showing their support for the opposition and turning out in record crowds for their rallies. This time around it's different. Whatever the end result of Saturday's election, there is no going back on the fact that the whole of Zimbabwe wants change - and this time the people might just be able to make it happen.
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