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Zimbabwe: Survey Shows Mugabe Winning Elections Overwhelmingly
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The Zimbabwe Guardian (London)
28 March 2008
Posted to the web 28 March 2008
Farai Mbewe
A POLL conducted recently shows President Robert Mugabe winning overwhelmingly in tomorrow's presidential election despite claims by the opposition Movement for Democratic Chnage that they will clinch the presidency.
A countrywide survey conducted by University of Zimbabwe lecturer, Dr Joseph Kurebwa, concluded that the ruling Zanu PF party will clinch a total of 41 Senate seats and 137 House of Assembly constituencies, ensuring a clean two-thirds majority in the next Parliament.
Kurebwa carried out similar surveys in the past and his projections have been correct. At the 2005 elections he projected that Zanu PF would win 72 seats and the MDC 45. In that election the ruling party went on to win 78 seats while the MDC got 41.
The survey concluded that MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai will win between 26 and 27 percent of the presidential vote with independent Simba Makoni will get 13-14 percent. Tsvangirai's win represents 13 Senate seats and 53 House of Assembly seats.
The Arthur Mutambara faction of the MDC would secure six seats in the Senate and 18 House of Assembly seats.
Little known independent presidential candidate, Langton Towungana, was likely to make up the numbers with 0,2 percent of the total vote count.
The projections for President Mugabe compare favourably to the roughly 52 percent he garnered in the last presidential election in 2002.
Kurebwa's study assessed responses from 10 322 people drawn from all the wards in Zimbabwe.
Jonathan Moyo is also expected to win the Tsholotsho House of Assembly seat as an independent.
Kurebwa said the entry of Makoni in the presidential race has dealt a huge blow to Tsvangirai's share of the vote. "Makoni is pulling his numbers from Harare and Bulawayo, which are areas the MDC has concentrated its campaign resources in. At the same time, the ruling party also believes that it should regain these urban constituencies and hence there is a tussle there.
"Zanu-PF appears to have concentrated its resources in rural areas and managed to secure them. On the other hand, neither Makoni nor Tsvangirai has made any real attempts to market themselves there. So you have a situation where the areas the opposition are targeting being free for all while Zanu PF is left alone to take the rural vote," according to Kurebwa.
The survey also shows that a vast majority of the electorate is going to accept the election outcome.
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"Almost unanimously the people we polled say they will respect the outcome of the elections even if their favoured parties and candidates lose. People do not want to go through the bitter experiences of past disputed elections."
Dr Kurebwa's conclusions are not isolated. Recently independent MP and ex-information minister also predicted that President Mugabe will win the presidential election.
David Coltart, a Bulawayo based human rights lawyer and opposition MDC (Mutambara) also predicted a Mugabe victory at the forthcoming elections.
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