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Zimbabwe: Poll Shows Tsvangirai is Likely Winner
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The East African Standard (Nairobi)
29 March 2008
Posted to the web 28 March 2008
Sebastian Nyamhangambiri
Nairobi
A recent pre-election survey in Zimbabwe puts main opposition leader, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai, as the people's favourite.
Coming second is President Robert Mugabe's former ally turned challenger, Mr Simba Makoni.
In a survey conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), Tsvangirai (Movement for Democratic Change) was favoured by 28.3 per cent of respondents, compared to Mugabe's 20.3 per cent and Makoni's 8.6 per cent.
Ruling Zanu-PF spokesperson, Dr Nathan Shamuyarira, dismissed the survey as "not scientific and biased."
He said: "Zanu-PF has a landslide victory in this election. We will not lose sleep on something that is not scientific and was done in a boardroom to further the interests of their colonial masters."
The MPOI was set up in 1999 and is headed by political commentator and University of Zimbabwe lecturer, Prof Eldred Masunungure.
Masunungure, though, admits that since opinion poll surveys are relatively new in Zimbabwe and given the volatility of previous elections, some respondents declined to disclose their choices. About 23.5 per cent of those surveyed said their vote was secret, 7.5 per cent had nothing to say while 5.4 per cent said they would not vote. About 4.4 per cent said they did not know. One per cent said they would vote for little known presidential candidate, Mr Langton Towungana.
Masunungure predicted a run-off given that it is unlikely any of the three candidates would get an outright majority of more than 51 percent in the first round of voting.
"The coming in of Makoni is likely to make it impossible to have a clear winner resulting in the run-off between the first two candidates," said Masunungure.
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Zanu PF has responded to the MPOI pre-election survey by commissioning its own survey to be conducted by academics from the University of Zimbabwe. Some believe these are aligned to the ruling party.
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