allAfrica.com: Zimbabwe: Washington Looks At Landmark Polls (Page 1 of 2)

As Zimbabweans head to landmark polls Saturday to elect a new president, few observers expect a truly fair outcome. Many flaws in the electoral process are obvious, from legal loopholes designed to favor President Robert Mugabe's Zanu PF to the outright banning of foreign media and many international observers. Still, many Zimbabweans hope their vote will make a difference for the better.

Experts on Zimbabwe from within and outside the country gathered for a panel discussion at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, Thursday to give decision-makers in the U.S. capital city the benefit of a more detailed briefing and discussion on the elections than is normally available in the U.S. media.

Panelist Ray Choto, a Zimbabwean journalist and senior editor at the U.S.-government funded radio station, Voice of America, told the audience that the hopes for change of most Zimbabweans were pinned on being able use their votes to end desperate hunger and poverty.

"The human crisis is beyond comprehension," he said. "People cannot afford to eat."

Zimbabweans have little or no access to basic services like education, healthcare, water, and sanitation, and the inflation rate is 100,000 percent. New banknotes are being printed with expiration dates because the Central Bank has predicted they will be worthless in only a few months, and the government has had to buy electricity from neighboring Mozambique to provide light for polling stations. Ultimately, said Choto, Saturday's polls will be a "vote of the belly."

However, Thomas Melia, deputy executive director of Freedom House, a U.S.-based advocacy organization, said that on a recent trip to Zimbabwe he noticed "a rising anxiety level" looming over opposition parties' "hopefulness" for change.

Obstacles at the polls

Recent constitutional amendments provided for Zimbabwe's first harmonized vote, with presidential, parliamentary and local elections being held on the same day.

Thus voters will be presented Saturday with four different ballots – one for presidential elections, and three for parliamentary and local-level elections. South Africa's main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has expressed concern that there has not been enough voter education to make the new system work.

Another concern expressed by the opposition and by the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), a coalition of voter-education focused non-governmental organizations barred from working during elections, is over a recent change in electoral law that prohibits voting outside of one's ward. In previous elections, Zimbabweans could vote anywhere within their constituency. Just a few weeks ago, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) decreed that voters must vote within their designated ward. According to Melia, many Zimbabweans do not know in which ward they must vote.

Also many voters live in neighboring countries - notably South Africa. But the government's provisions for Zimbabweans to vote outside the country, said Melia, are "only available to government officials, and not economic refugees."

On Thursday, SW Radio Africa, a London-based Zimbabwe news site, reported that presidential votes would be counted in constituencies first and again at a "coalition command centre" in the capital, Harare. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) had previously claimed that the count in Harare could provide an opportunity for rigging if observers are restricted from close observation of counting by ward and constituency.

Possible intimidation tactics and the threat of violence

Zimbabwean voters may also be subject to myriad intimidation tactics. Until recently, police officers were to be stationed 100 meters from all polling stations. As of last just last week, electoral law was changed to allow police inside polling stations with voters. According to Choto, ordinary Zimbabweans will be greatly intimidated by a police presence at polling stations because the police are "partisan" in favor of Mugabe, made up of former combatants, and headed by a known former military leader.

According to Choto, the army's open support of Mugabe and declaration that they will not recognize the election of any other candidate sounds, to ordinary Zimbabweans, like "if Tsvangirai wins, [the army] is going to stage a coup."

With a "partisan" police force, a history of brutality towards demonstrators and tensions running high, violence is not unexpected. "Someone will be unhappy," said Choto. Sanctions imposed by Western countries may limit access to and mobilization of aid in the event of widespread violence, Melia noted.

"Free and fair"

However, some analysts, including Choto and Melia, believe the polls could be declared "free and fair" by observer teams. Mugabe has banned Western countries from sending observers, but has approved delegations from other African countries, from African governmental groupings and countries such as China, Iran, Libya, and Sudan. Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi told the Times of London on March 8 that Sudan and Libya will be allowed "on the basis of objectivity and impartiality in their relationship with Zimbabwe."

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