Ryder Gabathuse
28 March 2008
Gaborone — Commentators have feared that the race for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) chairmanship might open a new factional war within the party.
The post falls vacant when the current holder and Vice President Ian Khama succeeds Festus Mogae as state and party president next Tuesday. There is a feeling in the party that to avoid 'imposing' a candidate, the powerful 18-member Central Committee should be allowed to fill the cost.
University of Botswana (UB) academic and political analyst, Dr John Makgala warned that it is possible that deep rifts could develop in the committee after the party fills the chairmanship and Khama chooses his vice-president. He blamed personal ambitions, acquisition of power and the wish to accumulate wealth to be at the centre of factionalism that often dogs the party. He added that the advancement of personal agendas is one of the factors that commonly sets politicians apart.
Another UB academic, Log Raditlhokwa said that he has already heard some people within the BDP saying that if the position of the chairman is given to cabinet minister and factional leader Daniel Kwelagobe, he might use it to revive the fortunes of his marginalised camp. Raditlhokwa warned that if the appointment issue is not handled tactfully and creatively, factionalism might revive in the BDP. "It will depend on how the party faithful reads the whole situation and remember the two positions up for grabs are very critical." Like Makgala, Raditlhokwa explained that BDP cannot eradicate factionalism because there are many people who want positions but these are limited. He described the situation as very delicate adding that it must be handled with care.
There are two likely scenarios in the quest to find the BDP chairman. It is likely that after his inauguration and possible announcement of his vice president next Tuesday, Khama might approach the Central Committee and propose that his deputy be endorsed as the chairman until the substantive one is elected at the next party congress in 2009.
BDP executive secretary, Dr Comma Serema said this week that the Central Committee is likely to meet after April 1 possibly to choose the next chairman. It is not automatic that the party chairman is the state vice-president after Ponatshego Kedikilwe's reign. Khama might allow the party to choose the chairman without his influence. Here, the most likely scenario is that the dominant Nkate-Merafhe faction might prevail over the rival Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe camp. This might mean that finally after the defeats he suffered at the hands of Kedikilwe, Foreign Affairs Minister Mompati Merafhe might become BDP chairman. Interestingly, the people listed as possible vice-presidents to Khama are Merafhe, Kedikilwe and Kwelagobe. There is however, a possibility that Khama could spring a surprise though it is said he needs an experienced person to guide him in the early days. He needs a vice-president who speaks Setswana very well and understands the policies of government. It is said Khama is not astute on policy and struggles to speak the vernacular.
When he quit as secretary general after a very long service, Kwelagobe was thought to be eyeing the party chairmanship when Khama takes over the presidency. He has however, refuted the allegations saying he cannot have interest in a position that is held by another party member, as this will be tantamount to a 'coup'. "In the event I am given the assignment as the party chairman, I would consider it," Kwelagobe had said in a previous interview.
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