Xn Iraki
30 March 2008
opinion
Nairobi — Kenyans are eagerly waiting for a new Cabinet. Why so eagerly? Why is it so hard to come up with one? What type of a Cabinet shall we get?
First, a new Cabinet will signal fortunes for some MPs. They will fly the flag and have their stature and influence rise. During the weekends, they will never waste an opportunity to stir sleepy hamlets with their visits, and flag decked limousines.
We all yearn for recognition; we all love prestige and power that go with such appointments.
But the fortunes will go beyond the MPs. Their close associates will benefit as well as their friends and, needless to say, their relatives.
One of the most closely guarded secrets is that lots of public service jobs are given based on blood relation and ethnicity, rather than merit. The secrets only emerge in the obituaries. Political parties are pretending that with the new political dispensation, this criterion for appointment will end. My hunch tells me it will be solidified, with no opposition, and no whistle blowers.
People are not eager for the Cabinet just to gossip about it. They expect dividends in terms of jobs and contracts. That is why temperatures rise during polls time and Cabinet appointments.
Why is it so hard to come up with a Cabinet when the Parliament has an oversupply of talents? Kibaki and Raila want to satisfy everyone. They also have their own agenda. Kibaki may not be willing to disappoint some of his most trusted lieutenants who supported him when things were tough. Some have boldly suggested that by appointing half Cabinet, Kibaki had insights into the future. To complicate matters further, Raila must have promised his political fighters dividends. That is why there is talk of getting steak, not bones.
The naming is complicated by the appointment. Will Raila give Kibaki names to fit into ministerial slots or shall he match specific names to specific ministries? But more ominous and perhaps tricky for the President is that once Raila gives his team's names and appointments are done, sacking them will not be easy. Political drama will emerge if the President tries to sack an ODM minister.
Could the delay, therefore, be about each principal making sure they get people they are comfortable with? The principals have their eyes on 2012. Kibaki will not need re-election but will need an heir apparent. The Cabinet line up will give us a shape of things to come.
ODM, however, has an obvious heir, Raila. PNU and its affiliates' greatest challenge is to get an heir that can match up to Raila.
While the accord was about peace and harmony, it was also about power. That is why they are so particular about the ministerial portfolio and the power they hold.
There is another hitch in appointing the Cabinet: What to do with MPs perceived as corrupt or suspected to have participated in post-election violence but command fanatical following in their constituencies.
Considering that outsiders played a role in hammering the accord, could they also be playing a role in appointments?
We also cannot rule out the possibility of some countries having interests in the Cabinet for strategic interests.
The Cabinet will have ramifications beyond Kenya in terms of business contacts and investment opportunities.
After all the suspense, what type of a Cabinet do we expect? Most likely, no new Cabinet.
The old familiar faces will be retained or returned. I expect a bloated Cabinet, driven by self-interest and political expediency. Who wants to be in the cold again?
The "new" Cabinet may be closer to the original Narc Cabinet. We all hope the new Cabinet will not repeat Narc internecine political fights that planted the seeds of political instability.
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