The East African Standard (Nairobi)

Kenya: Time Running Out for Kibaki And Raila

analysis

Nairobi — The signing of the National and Reconciliation Accord filled many with a great sense of optimism.

The constitutional amendments that followed in Parliament, created the offices of the Prime Minister and two deputies.

However, a month later President Kibaki and Prime Minister-designate Raila Odinga are yet to find a common ground in forming the Cabinet.

The two principals are now under intense pressure to put their show together before anxiety turns to despair and despondency.

Although the powers to decide the size of the Cabinet, create ministries and assign mandate are vested with the President and Parliament for instance, Raila has said he is uncomfortable with a 44-member Cabinet the Party of National Unity (PNU) proposes.

The ODM leader has proposed a Cabinet of 34 ministers. The two proposals and issues of portfolio balancing have led the two leaders to a dead wall, creating growing anxiety locally and internationally.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka three times this week has expressed frustration at the slow pace of resolving the issue.

Kalonzo has expressed concern for the internally displace persons suffering in rain-drenched camps.

"It disturbs my conscious that we are gathered in this comfortable hotel room, while our fellow citizens are hurting out there. We need to go out and help bring back normalcy," he told MPs at an induction workshop at the Safari Park Hotel.

The VP spoke as a tour of the Rift Valley by President Kibaki and Raila was postponed.

Raila told a press conference that the tour would not take place until the Cabinet is named.

The apparent inability by the ODM and PNU parties to agree on the size, composition and sharing of the Cabinet posts indicates the tough choices that have to be made.

Disagreements revolve around the size and what ministries each side takes, obviously because of the perceived power in the portfolios.

There are no easy options for the two leaders and time is running out. There is fear that if progress is not made soon, the highly charged political environment could degenerate into disruptive protests.

Former Kikuyu MP, Mr Paul Muite, says Kibaki and Raila should agree.

"For the sake of themselves and the nation, the only option for them is to agree. Failure to agree is no option. There is no basis for disagreement with the National Accord Act and constitutional amendments having spelt out what needs to be done," he said, on telephone.

Mbooni MP and a negotiator in the ongoing talks, Mr Mutula Kilonzo challenged the two leaders to rise to the occasion to put the country at ease.

"I have said we may have to define the mandate and policy of each ministry so as to take away the perception that some ministries are lesser than others. No one wishes the two sides to back-pedal to Serena but if there is no progress, we are waiting for them here," he said.

Surrender posts

On Wednesday, Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister, Ms Martha Karua said PNU was willing to surrender Cabinet slots already held by its MPs, but accused ODM of demanding too much.

"We are ready to step down from some of the powerful ministries for the sake of unity, but ODM should stop making unrealistic," she said.

Media reports have indicated that the key ministries of Internal Security and Finance have formed the greatest bone of contention. PNU's Prof George Saitoti already has Internal Security Ministry. Mr Amos Kimunya holds Finance.

The Local Government and Roads ministries held by Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr John Michuki, also rank in the league of prime dockets.

The longer the two sides take to strike a balance, the more anxiety rises, hardliners on both sides unwilling to give an inch.

On Friday, Raila admitted that he and Kibaki were under intense pressure from their supporters anticipating Cabinet positions.

And as time drags on, both sides risk terrible consequences should one of them be perceived as the guilty party if the accord collapses.

Both sides have made efforts to mend fences with correspondences to each other leaked to the media.

In the letters, ODM has stated, "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, while PNU sought to suggested "a lot of progress has been achieved between Kibaki and Raila."

Unfortunately, the longer it takes, the more time mischief makers on both sides have in their hands.

Those on the PNU's side are said to be plotting to undermine ODM's unity through direct ministerial appointments.

On the ODM side, there are those eying direct ministerial appointments then quit Pentagon House. They would then switch loyalty to Kibaki's side.

Were that to happen, PNU may score for weakening ODM but risk tones of mistrust and plunge in further credibility crisis.

The suppressed threats of a return to mass action by some ODM MPs last week, shows how vicious the underlying wars are.

ODM's Mr Jakoyo Midiwo was blunt when he dismissed the ministerial offers by PNU as "unacceptable dry bones stripped of all meat."

Mass action may be an option for ODM to force PNU to give in to some of their demands.

But mass action would not come at the right time, especially after a human rights watchdog released a scathing report on post-election violence.

Last week, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights published a report indicating that the Government and the Opposition had a role in the skirmishes.

But Raila and ODM could surprise President Kibaki by accepting the Cabinet slice that PNU has placed on the table.

He could then push for a speedy constitutional reform to herald a new dispensation that will allow him to make up for whatever raw deal from PNU.

On the other hand, PNU must also factor in the consequences of a collapsed National Accord.

President Kibaki is still the head of State and has the duty of protecting all Kenyans, political intrigues notwithstanding. And if the accord collapses, the buck would stop with him.

Tagged: East Africa, Kenya

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