Business Daily (Nairobi)
Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem
31 March 2008
opinion
If there is a more level playing field in Zimbabwe it may not be a foregone conclusion that President Mugabe will win.
The playing field is very much weighted against Mugabe's opponents. In spite of the enthusiasm with which Simba Makoni has been received both nationally and internationally by forces of regime change that are tiring of the dramas surrounding Morgan Tsvangirai and beginning to wane in their support for him, Makoni's performance in the elections may actually be more to the benefit of Tsvangirai as it is at the expense of President Mugabe and his dwindling support within the ZANU-PF.
I may be wrong but I don't think the election will provide a Makoni moment. It is also highly unlikely that Morgan's courage and perseverance in forcing open the political space is about to be rewarded with electoral victory.
What the election may show is that as in Kenya in the 1990s, the majority of the masses are tired of President Mugabe but the opposition is not ready to assume power.
The comparative experience from other countries in Africa with long term Personal/One party rule is that as long as the incumbent maximum ruler is standing in the election it is more difficult to defeat the ruling party.
A combination of intimidation, open bribery of voters, restraints on the opposition and the media or brutal force and scandalous manipulation of all rules governing the electoral processes will be used to retain power failing which direct theft of the votes would be effected.
Senegal (Abdou Diouf) and Benin (Kerekou) were exceptions in the 90s and early 2000s where Presidents in a one party dominant state was defeated by an opposition alliance.
I will say Zimbabwe has not arrived at the point for change. The incumbent is still standing. The opposition still believes they can win on their own or are expecting a runoff which will establish whether Morgan or Makoni is best placed to unseat their aged Uncle!
While Makoni represents an important internal rupture in ZANU-PF causing self doubt and realignment away from ZANU-PF the much talked about and expected break within ZANU-PF has not produced significant smoking guns.
This means that so far not enough influential individuals and constituencies are willing to put their heads above the parapet to unseat Mugabe. This election may be another missed opportunity for changing the deplorable conditions that the long suffering masses of Zimbabwe live with.
Real change may not happen until after President Mugabe either quits (highly unlikely) or is retired by the ancestors. Zuma coming to power in neighbouring South Africa may also trigger realignments that may limit Mugabe's room for manouvre.
Abdul-Raheem is deputy director UN Millennium Campaign.
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